Official track moves Erika to be south of the Island of Puerto Rico down the line. Looking at the 5am graphics @ TPC, they increase Erika to near hurricane strength in 72 hours. The wind-speed probability (at that point) is still trending toward intensification.
Now while I hope you get a couple of rain bands and some high surf to watch, let's hope that's all she visits upon PR.
Long term implications are still muddled to me. Speed is currently west @ 19. UKMET likes a track slightly east of FL into the Bahamas. Some of the other models continue a fast and weak storm toward the Yucatan. The solution is probably somewhere between these ideas. Whether that means Erika will be coming into South Florida, the Keys or the Yucatan Channel is impossible to know right now. But she's going to make for lots of interesting speculation this week.
If Erika ends up coming into the Gulf, she will be the storm that deviates from the 60 year climate norm where years after heavy Gulf of Mexico action only had 2 or fewer storms the next year (my forecast called for 5 named storms at least in the Gulf this year).
US Impact is likely to be Monday or Tuesday of the week after next.
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