yeah, the timetables sound right.. but still a lot of variables to consider. td 6 has an early history of racing in the easterlies as a disorganized system.. something last week's storm did for days. by the time claudette had finished with that it was being flayed alive by southwesterly shear. it's not hard to picture this happening all over again. here's what to watch for: if the storm keeps it's pace or even accelerates.. watch it keep charging ahead and never get very organized. if it slows down as is forecast.. perhaps it will follow the nhc track. until one of these things starts to happen i can't find ground to speculate on.
danny boy is looking.. tenacious, there's a word. low level stratus curling into the exposed center, convection sheared SE.. but still stronger than i thought. probably 48hr or so before it gets back into a stabilizing environment.. has to keep itself viable in the meantime.
trough related weather off the SE US disorganized, models hinting at nothing.
more interesting is the itcz disturbance that got mention in the 5am td 6 discussion. last night i mentioned that td 6 (though i wrongly said danny) was feeding it inflow on the edge of its rotary envelope.. nhc words it more like the disturbance has been stealing six's mojo. doesn't look much worse than td 6 did a couple days ago, so worth keeping in mind.
basin is going like it's august 20th, not july 20th. maybe it will be done by september and winter will set in.
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