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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
      Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM

Sitting here under the gun by one global model (Nogaps, that basically brings the storm up my back yard, albiet from the east so on the "cleaner" side) and looking closely at the models and environment, plus the storm itself, here's my take....

We don't know (yet) where this thing is going with any degree of confidence. The guidance envelope on the global models is wide and in fact has gotten wider in the last 24 hours. This indicates that there is an issue with initialization and upper-air environment that has not yet found resolution. As the storm gets more organized this will probably tighten up significantly, and that's good.

The bad news is that a "strafing run" up the west coast of Florida is probably the worst case for a number of people, including especially Tampa, which has a bay that is open to "cramming" of surge from a storm that takes this path. It hasn't happened in a very long time but that doesn't mean it can't.

Best case is that we get a bit more of a poleward movement and Cuba inhibits the storm materially, and it doesn't have enough time to get its act together before impacting land. This makes everyone "happier" in terms of total impact, but it will still ruin some people's days. The worst case is that it skims Cuba and gets plenty of organization before crossing on the western half, where the terrain won't tear it up as much and the time over land will do little as it will be short. That's bad.

I'm not getting alarmed yet but I am getting ready and inventorying what I need in the event it looks to be headed on a NoGaps-ish path. I think we'll have a much better idea tomorrow afternoon or evening, when there should be more data and a couple more model runs.

I'm also intrigued by the GOES-East WV runs and it confirms, more-or-less, what the sticking points are in the NHC discussion as well as here. The bad news is that I don't see as much movement and "spit out" potential on the low out west, which would tend to auger for a more westward component to the movement. The IR shows that outflow is improving, so the real inhibitor here is land interaction, not environment.

The difficulty here is that small differences in the jet and that low, along with what happens in terms of shear, have a very large impact not only on exactly where the storm comes in but also on how strong it is. There is plenty of oceanic heat content to support a 'Cane, so that's not a factor - its the environment and particularly how much interaction with land (Cuba) we get that will tell the tale on this one.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Clark Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 craigm   Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Lee-Delray   Sun Aug 17 2008 09:01 AM
. * * East Coast Beach   Sun Aug 17 2008 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 17 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 17 2008 05:13 AM
. * * Morning AFD roundup danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 17 2008 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... chase 22   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... weathernet   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... scottsvb   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... weathernet   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... vmzamorano   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... scottsvb   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Clark   Sun Aug 17 2008 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... LoisCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Mike N   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Just a couple of quick notes... Clark   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? doug   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Genesis   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? StormHound   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Questions Bev   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? weathernet   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Hugh   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? pcbjr   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Questions mikethewreck   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Robert   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Hugh   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:36 PM
. * * Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? chase 22   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? flanewscameraman   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? BillD   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? jayb   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... FIREREALTY   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? JMII   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Renter's Insurance?? FIREREALTY   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? KC   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? saluki   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? conschscooter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 16 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? laurie66   Sat Aug 16 2008 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? VolusiaMike   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:46 PM
. * * wondering!!! watchinout   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? B_from_NC   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? laurie66   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? craigm   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? bradrd   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? DaViking   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? DarleneCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:20 AM
. * * Center reforming? pcola   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba DarleneCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Aesh   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:05 AM
. * * ship obs Robert   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Clark   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:36 AM

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