I can't make my mind up. The way the convection was rolling out WNW yesterday, it appeared TD #6 might climb 15N. I think the heading is closer to 270-275 after reviewing Bobbi's IR link. TPC's got 14.2/58.8 at 11am. @ 5am, it was 14.0/56.7 (N:W Slope was 2:21 over the last 6 hours, compared to 3:20 over the previous 6 hours beginning 11PM last night). That's nearly West as "True" WNW heading is 292.5 or sloped at 1:2 rather than 1:7 or 1:10. We're not there yet.
Earlier thinking was that the UKMET, though and outlier, may have been onto something. However, all the shallow models have reasonably the same solution of the East-Central Gulf by Saturday morning. Some of the Global models don't even recognize TD #6 as anything down the line, so that argues for slow (if any) development over the next 72 hours.
Recent Quickscat passes indicated winds to 45K, but it's unclear if there is a closed circulation. I have my doubts, but I think the central islands will see their fair share of gusts above tropical storm strength (enough to justify the warnings/watches posted for those areas).
If the forward speed continues through the 48-72 hour time frame in the 20-23mph range as has been the case so far, gut is TD #6 gets into the Gulf of Mexico as either a southern Gulf problem (Yucatan) or a threat east of me, say MS-NW FL.
If it slows, strengthens or moves a bit more Northwesterly than it has, then it's potentially a East Coast of Florida-North Carolina problem. All else I'm going to say for now is that I'm not leaning either way. I'm trying to stay open minded with a storm with stacking problems flying toward the Caribbean.
Btw, check out today's look at Super Typhoon Imbudo. Click on the NRL link below and then on the left-hand side, click on Imbudo. Amazing.
Ironically, both Koni and Imbudo after heading WNW are expected to curve toward the west (ala Claudette). It may be that the ridging they're following won't be as established in the SE US until after TD #6/Erika passes the area.
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