shows a real twisting cdo that ebbs and fades and pulses but keeps moving and twisting... has a big pocket and a small circulation and think it is there.. viable.
to call it an open wave would be a cop out
hard to deal with small fast systems like this but they are their own species and can be potent if they intensify fast which small storms can do
#2 Think UK Met is onto the overall pattern but not taking into account current nonstop w@23 therefore scenario works out but further to the left than the right..dont see charleston, not this time. IF it forms and intensifies and the breakdown of the ridge forms around Florida due to trof... would pull it up like the UKMet but more to the left
#3 NHC scenario...close but too far to the left.. either this storm stays west bound @23 and bullets its way into the pacific as a td/wave.. or it intensifies, cant buy both.. IF it makes the curve don't think it will be that far out because its moving too fast.. with this speed and NHC scenario would i think... miss the weakness and keep going..
so think NHC is good but too much to the left
#4 IF it moves west weakly but fast.. will miss trof and not pull up..
Think if we see Erika from this we will have a Florida storm and the curve northwest/north will be similar to cleo.. and will come up around keys either to left or right and could skim sw coast of florida or march up i95.. has to make the turn, cant do that turn as a strong td hybred storm..
Also..a small storm would be weakened by a Cuba Crossing
So...that's my thought on it..
Does anyone see a reason it will slow in the next 24 hours cause think that is the key here more than the usual timing of the trof.
Lastly...forget the planes and watch the radar its about to cruise through the islands..
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