I'll go out on a limb and give my landfall forecast for Fay. (about 24-36hrs) from landfall as midnight Monday morning.
The models have been left and right. Only real model ( I hate to say ) that has been closest to being right is the CMC but along with the GFS. The CMC was first to say it would pass south of Hisapiola, then the GFS followed. The GFDL has been left and right along with the rest of the guidance and the Nogaps has been usually too far left (showing a weaker system generally). The CMC was most of the time on right side of the guidance for Florida, GFDL been next closest to it then the GFS with the rest of the spread generally along the west coast or in the eastern GOM. 0z data suggests more of a weakness in the northern gulf as a trough digs down. Also water vapor imagery also shows this, with a 2nd trough swinging in later tonight (Mondaynight), taking anything NE., and this will then discount the Nogaps model and shallow tropical model suites. The GFS suggest though along with the ECMWF that this trough will lift NE by Weds trapping FAY off the coast of Jacksonville then moving it back west later this week.
My forecast has to show a landfall from Marco island north to Sarasota.Although Fay does have a slight chance to make it closer to TampaBay the chance is less than 30%. Tampa will be forecasted to be brushed and get only a Tropical Storm warning.... another miss for this area.( Hurricane Wise)
Fay is still forecasted to become a hurricane but how strong it is matters on time over water and shear. I dont think the shear will be a major problem as she will move intandem with the shear zone. Most of the weather with Fay will be around and east of her. The water is very warm around 86-87F and I expect moderate strengthning Monday night into Tuesday approaching 85-95mph, could be more or less due to where it makes landfall and if it moves slow enough to be over the SE GOM for at least 24hrs.
After that being said.. that is my forecast for Fay and with anyone blogging info, take the NHC forecast over me or anyone else is who you go by.
Fay will move NNE-NE and exit later Tuesday night-Weds off Daytona-Jacksonville slowdown then from there its too early to say. As a ""guess"" ..Really folks it could wobble SE then S and West back towards NE Florida,GA going inland or even extreme NE Big Bend of the GOM later this week-weekend.
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