Pacific SSTA's continue to show pretty neutral ENSO conditions. Looks like some solidly 2.5 degree warmer than average water off the west coast of Florida FWIW down the line.
I don't look for #6 to do much more than pulse for another 15-18 degrees west. 80W is my line of demarcation for #6. If, by then, it's still hauling disorganized butt across the WCAR, it's an EASTPAC system. If there are signs of life and a WNW or NW movement, it's probably Erika. The tell-tale signs should be evident by Wed PM. At least we don't have long to wait.
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