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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
      Tue Aug 19 2008 03:14 PM

It is pretty remarkable to see a tropical system actually develop an eye over land. As was mentioned above, whether or not a tropical cyclone is over water is not the sole determinant of whether it will weaken or not. In this case, the wind shear that had been impinging on the system from the west has relaxed, allowing the outflow to dramatically improve. As we've seen with a few other systems, the warm, humid, swampy conditions that prevail over south Florida can sustain (at least for awhile) a system in the strong tropical storm/low-end hurricane range if the other environmental factors are very favorable.

That said, Fay is running on fumes at this point and is starting to show a little strain. Cloud tops have warmed and the maximum winds on radar have come down slightly from earlier in the day. It is doing remarkably well for a tropical cyclone over land, but gradual weakening is still the most likely scenario until it emerges back over water. Model guidance is still not very clear on what happens with Fay after about 24 hours. NHC still has a very difficult forecast on their hands.

Radar has also been indicating some pretty intense small supercells in the outer bands of Fay over the Atlantic. These have tended to weaken as they move onshore, but areas near the coast will continue to see an enhanced tornado risk for the next several hours, along with a risk of damaging wind gusts.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Aug 19 2008 03:15 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay Over Lake Okeechobee MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 19 2008 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Outer Eyewall taking over? Soapyho   Wed Aug 20 2008 07:11 AM
. * * Re: Outer Eyewall taking over? nerakkaren   Wed Aug 20 2008 07:06 AM
. * * Re: Outer Eyewall taking over? Soapyho   Wed Aug 20 2008 04:56 AM
. * * Outer Eyewall taking over? Bloodstar   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:24 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:16 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon Bev   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:19 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon JMII   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:00 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? Soapyho   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon Floridacane   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:46 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:45 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon watchinout   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:16 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:15 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon Kraig   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:11 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:01 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon JMII   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:01 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:50 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon Ed in Va   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:48 PM
. * * Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon MichaelA   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:42 PM
. * * High pressure building....Fay will head west soon SeaMule   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:29 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:16 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? ricky   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:16 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:15 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? MichaelA   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:08 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:00 PM
. * * NHC projects at least 24 hours over the Atlantic... SeaMule   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:44 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? JMII   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:41 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:21 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:14 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:12 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? B_from_NC   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:09 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? MichaelA   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:06 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:01 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? Bev   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Fay Over Lake Okeechobee Chris Bryant   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:33 PM
. * * Re: why is Fay Strengthening? OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Sadie   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. metwannabe   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. mikethewreck   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:06 PM
. * * why is Fay Strengthening? SeaMule   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. JMII   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. doug   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Fay Makes Landfall at Cape Romano as a Tropical Storm Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Fay Makes Landfall at Cape Romano as a Tropical Storm Typhoon Dave   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. chase 22   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. kromdog   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Ed in Va   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. scottsvb   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. craigm   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Brett Addison   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Troy C   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Chris Bryant   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. WeatherNut   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Beach   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. kromdog   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. metwannabe   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. MichaelA   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. kromdog   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. MichaelA   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Beach   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. charlottefl   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Tropicbird   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:43 AM
. * * Fay stronger at landfall then thought. Robert   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:21 AM

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