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#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Nate) , Major: 26 (Maria) Florida - Any: 36 (Irma) Major: 36 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Happy Birthday! HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
fay heading seaward
      Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 PM

took a break from the radar for a few hours... last i looked it was trudging over northern okeechobee county. expected to see it near yeehaw junction at 11, but there it is in indian river county... edging northeastward and nearing the coastline around sebastian inlet. presentation on radar and satellite has decayed markedly in the last 2-3 hrs, with a noticeable dry slot and a considerable deterioration of the inner eyewall. am willing to bet that will be short lived.. that tomorrow morning the inner eyewall convection will recover as the core moves over water with considerable heat content.
willing to put my future philosophy on the storm out at this time. believe that fay is going to rebuild an inner core tomorrow and deepen rapidly at some point going into thursday. think the nhc track is fairly sound.. would edge my target window more from jacksonville to brunswick (bullseye at the ga/fl border, st marys ga) with a more gradual left turn... think the storm will clear the coastline enough to do some substantial deepening and be a significant hurricane by thursday pm. expect it to remain compact enough that wind damage will be in a relatively narrow swath, say 30-50 miles dia. i don't think the kind of deepening shown on the gfdl and hwrf are impossible given the compact nature of the storm. however, counting on odds that eyewall replacement or tepid waters at the immediate coast will have it weakening a tad at landfall. think the nhc official is at the bottom of the range i'd expect for landfall.. best bet winds 80-90kt. minor chance of major hurricane winds, but highly uncertain. expect the storm to be near or over the florida panhandle by sunday.
keep in mind that's just my best guess. if the storm hugs the coastline it may never get above tropical storm status. if it turns left as hard as the global consensus it'll probably be a force to be reckoned with in the gulf. if it swings a wider arc, georgia beware.
HF 0329z20august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 PM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward kromdog   Wed Aug 20 2008 09:58 AM
. * * Fay Nearly Stationary; Gulf of Mexico? berrywr   Wed Aug 20 2008 09:45 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward berrywr   Wed Aug 20 2008 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast mcgowanmc   Wed Aug 20 2008 09:17 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward mikethewreck   Wed Aug 20 2008 08:45 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward pcola   Wed Aug 20 2008 08:09 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward charlottefl   Wed Aug 20 2008 05:00 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 20 2008 04:20 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward stinger   Wed Aug 20 2008 04:08 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 20 2008 02:48 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 20 2008 02:43 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 20 2008 02:32 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 20 2008 02:20 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 20 2008 02:07 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward scottsvb   Wed Aug 20 2008 01:42 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward LoisCane   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:58 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward wxman007   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:47 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Colleen A.   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:43 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward allan   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:43 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward wxman007   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:33 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward LoisCane   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:26 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast wxman007   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:05 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 20 2008 12:00 AM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:58 PM
. * * Re: fay heading seaward Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast BillD   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:52 PM
. * * fay heading seaward HanKFranK   Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Bloodstar   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Jumaduke   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast gulf coaster   Tue Aug 19 2008 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast sprghill   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast ricky   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Tazmanian93   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast scottsvb   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast rayboat   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast GoBigSurf   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Tazmanian93   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast metwannabe   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast B_from_NC   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast dolfinatic   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast WeatherNut   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Tazmanian93   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast engicedave   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast lawgator   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast ricky   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Duane   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Hugh   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast dolfinatic   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast gatorman   Tue Aug 19 2008 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Hugh   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast pcola   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Joe   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast scottsvb   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast engicedave   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Joe   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast M.A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast pcola   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast Humanriff   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:14 PM

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