He thinks the system will cross Hispanola tonight and tomorrow morning, then slow and turn more NW. He's not making a call until after that. The system is being sheared, but the overall size of the storm has increased and believes there is a chance at ideal development conditions in the Thursday to Saturday period, but it's not only 'if' but 'where' as well. His gut is at FL or up east of it. He's not making the call though as to whether it's dead or something that will develop until it's past Hispanola.
The only other tropical thing of note from his column today was that the pattern we're in ups the ante for the meat of the hurricane season with his high number for intensity in his Carolina zone.
None of the videos are out yet, so I don't have his reasoning. The way the ULL is now lifting out NW may provide some clues to the overall pattern. I just see (at least in the nearterm) more potential with #6 to skirt the west side of Florida, but I also said I wasn't making a call on it until it was near 80W.
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