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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Administrative Notes
      Sun Aug 24 2008 11:44 AM

As urged by Lois in a previous post this a.m., would also be interested with any MET's thoughts on 94L as well. Perhaps even moreso, would be curious to their "take" or interpretation on what I have noticed to be an unusually lesser degree of short to mid term model consistancy with regards to steering patterns. Seems that in some past years, perhaps years where the Atlantic has displayed more pronounced meridianal troughing, forecasts of 72hr's-120hr's tended to be more "spot on". This year, it is my observation that not only does the Eastern U.S. appear much more zonal, but the overall Atlantic as well. Of course this would lessen the extent of poleward steering influences, but because of this perhaps, there also seems to be less defined steering, with 500mb flow variances and heights seemingly less extreme. Then you take weaker systems in the early stages of cyclongenisis, and even greater conflict of model guidance seems to exist given the lower level steering influences that always exist.

It might be noted to, that as we watch for development of 94L or other future invests, that perhaps contrary to other years, certain models typically less relied on may be actually more reliable this year given the specifity of dynamical data deceminated by them. Right now for instance, as another post already made reference to the GFDL now having backed off development of 94L, suddenly NOGAPS ( in the last couple of runs ) out of nowhere really develops the system north of Hispanola/Cuba. What is most odd to me about this, is that I have noticed some years ago, that the NOGAPS model had somehow become "neutered" ( obviously tweaked ), and seemingly rarely forecasting future cyclogenisis, especially less so as an outlyer to the many other models not forecasting the same. :?:

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay & Future Features Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Aug 24 2008 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features flanewscameraman   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features M.A.   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:21 AM
. * * last microwave pass Raymond   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features cieldumort   Mon Aug 25 2008 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 25 2008 05:12 AM
. * * Re: "Son of Fay" LoisCane   Sun Aug 24 2008 11:57 PM
. * * "Son of Fay" weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features allan   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features shewtinstar   Sun Aug 24 2008 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features metwannabe   Sun Aug 24 2008 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features johnnylightning   Sun Aug 24 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features craigm   Sun Aug 24 2008 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features LoisCane   Sun Aug 24 2008 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features M.A.   Sun Aug 24 2008 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features johnnylightning   Sun Aug 24 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features MichaelA   Sun Aug 24 2008 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features CDMOrlando   Sun Aug 24 2008 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features CDMOrlando   Sun Aug 24 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes WeatherNut   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes tropics   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes scottsvb   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes LoisCane   Sun Aug 24 2008 09:58 AM
. * * Administrative Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2008 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features cate   Sat Aug 23 2008 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features gatorman   Sat Aug 23 2008 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features pcola   Sat Aug 23 2008 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 23 2008 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 23 2008 05:02 PM

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