PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 920 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008
AN INCREASING ATLC TROPICAL CONSENSUS OCCURRING IN OVERNIGHT RUNS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 94L AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH 95L. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS NOGAPS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET ALL INDICATE DEVELOPMENT AND A NW TRACK INTO THE BAHAMAS OR CUBA BY DAY 6 WITH A NW CONTINUENCE. GFS REMAINS ALONE WITH LIMITED TO NO DEVELOPMENT. HURRICANE MODELS ARE LESS EMPHATIC AND MAINTAIN A MORE WRLY COURSE TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 94L. WHETHER 94L OR 95L OR BOTH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL WAVE OR GREATER MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS OR CENTRAL GREATER ANTILLES DAYS 5-7 POSSIBLY AFFECTING FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES.
HPC UPDATED MORNING BLENDS USE A 50/50 BLEND OF OP GFS AND ECMWF THRU DAY 5 THEN A BLENSD OF ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN THRU DAYS 6 AND 7. THE OP 00Z GFS IS REASOANBLE ENOUGH TO USE ALSO AT THIS TIME BUT WAS NOT USED BECAUSE OF ITS DISREGARD OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS 94L AND 95L. ROSENSTEIN
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