>>I'm with you Mary K. Lets keep the "wishcasting" down to a minimum everyone...
Maybe you need to go back and read what I posted and also her reply. The post was about lack of initialization of 97L on the models. It had nothing to do with wishcasting. That's not part of my repitoire. Ask anyone who's been here 3-4 years and they'll set the record straight.
97L remains an enigma. As noted Monday, it wouldn't be until Thursday before we could get a handle on what (if any) impact there might be for the United States. A MLC continues south of Haiti, and the wave continues to move westward. As LoisCane said, the wave appears to be splitting somewhat. Energy from the northern part of the wave is activating the upper low off the SE Coast. Energy closer to the MLC is producing showers over Dominican Republic and Haiti. The remnants of #6 continues to be sheared from the SW. It will run into more shear between two ridges sometime tomorrow. But looking at the 800mb and 500mb, it appears the shear will be substantially less when the wave axis gets closer to South or SW FL and into the Gulf of Mexico. The mean trof axis is likly to be between 87-89W. This means that if anything pops out of these remnants, the northern Gulf Coast (east of the LA/MS state line) would feel the brunt. However, a very strong ridge is building off the SE US coast and should progress pretty far west. This argues for a W-WNW push toward the Texas Coast. It is supported by the tracks of Koni and Imbudo with a ridge firmly entrenched across Japan. We're already in the 6-10 day Bastardi teleconnection period since the ridge has been there for over a week. But it's still not going anywhere per recent IR loops and may actually be retrograding somewhat meaning continued ridging across the SE Atl coast.
What does this all mean? I don't know. You can't write off 97L but at the same time, you can't assume it's going to turn into anything. Until the pulsing stops, it's not dead. But until the feedback gets going, it's not alive. My target point for intensification was at or beyond 80W. We've still got another day to go.
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