I think these models are not on to this at all...today is a day of flux in the weather patterns...the trough splitting that Bastardi likes to talk about may be happenning...the upper level feature NW of the wave is moving out to the north...an upper high is setting up over the central bahamas...the system seems to be developing a moisture tap from the south...the area of weakness in the environment seems to be located in the same vicinity as the present location of the bulk of the energy in the system is located now and heading in the next 24 hrs...the only question will be is this weakness going to be enough of a spark to refire the wave?
I think speculation like we engage in here is necessary in order to anticipate the unthinkable...i.e. assume this does refire and develops quickly, just how much time will that leave before a real threat exists? not too much...It is all in fun anyway. EDS.
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