Yeah I got it Cyclone Head. Thanks. No fill on the property so I'm going to have to pay $600/year for that Flood Insurance if I want it. And yeah, I want it.
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Just watched Bastardi's tropical update. He showed some modeling (upper stuff), but I couldn't tell if it was ETA or GFS because I had to watch it at 100k which isn't as clear (300k kept screwing up). Essentially the whole central Gulf over to a couple of hundred miles east of Florida will be ripe with a developing upper anti-cyclone (high pressure) as the trof splits and lifts out. The question he has is where is the wave? If it's off the SE Coast, it could be stalled off Jacksonville, FL or NC (his words) or it could be somewhere in the SE Gulf. Whatever is there will be in a very low shear atmosphere over the weekend. Arguing against any development is the lack of low level circulation. His moral was just to watch it and see if the convection can persist rather than pulse, and if so, the conditions will be ripe.
The only other thing of note from the TU was that the way the pattern is developing may mean less activity as the season wears on for the Gulf. Someone was talking to me at the time so I couldn't listen as intently as I wanted to, but it has to do with the SOI going positive and leading to flatter amplifications overall. Some kind of way that involves great hit potential for the East Coast. Though I know what the SOI is (since I post it every week or so), I don't really understand the 15 day dynamics in conjunction with other macro indicators. So I'm not commenting any further on it until I get a better explanation.
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