well, thats the slowly turning core from a convective flareup this morning.. most of the convection has sheared out around it. needs to keep convection nearby to work itself into a surface low.. and better conditions aloft. that's possible.. as the trough is receding to the north and that upper low to the east would probably be a good ventilating feature.
rest of the basin: danny low really is weakening, so i'm no longer thinking it has a chance. no convection=no system.
same basic problem in the deep tropics.. too much subsidence and less convection around the itcz. i'd go so far as to assume mjo is positive right now, based on how scant basin convection has become. of course if this is true, in a few weeks things will turn completely around.
note to bill--you're talking about 1997. same thing has occurred to me, but i can't bring myself to believe we'll get the same results. that super powerful el nino produced a mitigating effect that i doubt our current neutral state could match, and the pacific has only produced six tropical storms.. not one hurricane, and july is almost over. expect a very different sort of year, in spite of that nagging recognition of the similar start in the atlantic.
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