well, thats the slowly turning core from a convective flareup this morning.. most of the convection has sheared out around it. needs to keep convection nearby to work itself into a surface low.. and better conditions aloft. that's possible.. as the trough is receding to the north and that upper low to the east would probably be a good ventilating feature.
rest of the basin: danny low really is weakening, so i'm no longer thinking it has a chance. no convection=no system.
same basic problem in the deep tropics.. too much subsidence and less convection around the itcz. i'd go so far as to assume mjo is positive right now, based on how scant basin convection has become. of course if this is true, in a few weeks things will turn completely around.
note to bill--you're talking about 1997. same thing has occurred to me, but i can't bring myself to believe we'll get the same results. that super powerful el nino produced a mitigating effect that i doubt our current neutral state could match, and the pacific has only produced six tropical storms.. not one hurricane, and july is almost over. expect a very different sort of year, in spite of that nagging recognition of the similar start in the atlantic.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 25253
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center