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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 232 (Idalia) , Major: 232 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 232 (Idalia) Major: 232 (Idalia)
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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely
      Sat Sep 06 2008 11:10 AM

Sept. - Oct. can be a very difficult time of the year to forecast recurvature on these storms in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf because of their interaction with strengthening mid-latitude systems. Combine that with the fact that we have very minimal data over water, which causes questions in model initialization ... Ike is a storm to keep a close watch on through the next SEVERAL days. The GFS has been quite reliable this season (as noted by others) and it was already suggesting last Tuesday that Ike would move into eastern Cuba around Sunday.

My question is how much will Ike weaken if it moves across/along Cuba? Intensity and timing are still big question marks. Note that the forward speed of Ike is projected to slow down as it enters the Gulf by Wednesday. IF SO, it will be a prime candidate to make a sharp turn to the NE and the FL Gulf coast by Friday, in response to a deep trough forecast to push into the central US. But that's a long way out yet.

This time of the year (esp. late Sep.-early Oct.), we've seen models try to recurve these cyclones over the long term, only for them to continue moving west, south of any mid-latitude influence. While that's not the likely scenario right now, it bears watching.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 06 2008 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Drops dolfinatic   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:04 AM
. * * Re: Drops Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Drops Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Drops Genesis   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Drops LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Drops LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Drops ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Drops ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Drops Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Drops stormchazer   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Drops LoisCane   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Drops BillD   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Drops CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Drops doug   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Drops kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Drops danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Drops ftlaudbob   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Drops BillD   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Drops RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Drops Random Chaos   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Drops Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Drops kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Drops smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Drops WPB Ken   Sat Sep 06 2008 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Drops smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Drops Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Drops Texas Cane Tracker   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:40 PM
. * * Re: OOPS Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:34 PM
. * * OOPS danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Drops JulieTampa   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Drops Mag   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Drops pcbjr   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:35 PM
. * * Drops danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest KJJAXFL   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:20 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Sheeper   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Pcola DWard   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Terra   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:23 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! pcola   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:12 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:53 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:44 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:20 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:18 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:11 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! hurricane expert   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:08 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:45 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! scottsvb   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:42 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:19 PM
. * * New Orleans again?! vineyardsaker   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely scottsvb   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Colleen A.   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely pcola   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely RevUp   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely madmumbler   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely scottsvb   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Lee-Delray   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest shewtinstar   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely GLT   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Models CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely GLT   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:16 AM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely GLT   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely ftlaudbob   Sat Sep 06 2008 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely pcola   Sat Sep 06 2008 08:23 AM

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