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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued
      Wed Sep 10 2008 09:46 PM

Ike is an interesting storm, with a well-defined outer eyewall of about 80-90 nm radius and a reasonably well-defined inner eyewall of about 10 nm radius. The pressure keeps falling, but the wind field is not responding because of this dual eyewall structure. Conventional satellite shows a deep mass of convection atop the center of circulation, but there are also hints of dry air intrusion just outside of this. Due to the thermodynamics behind this and the lack of organization of this tight inner core, the pressure falls are not leading to a significant increase in maximum winds.

Instead, the pressure gradient -- the primary driver of the winds -- is largely uniform from the inner eyewall to about 100 nm radius. As a result, the radii of hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds continues to expand as the pressure falls. While we don't know enough about dual eyewall structures or hurricanes in general to conclusively attribute this evolution to such a structure, but it seems as though that land interaction and/or dual eyewall structure *plus* less than ideal atmospheric conditions (here, dry air intrusion; with Gustav, upper-level shear) tends to lead to this combination of low surface pressures but not correspondingly maximum winds. Will these conditions change? It's tough to say. We don't know enough about inner core dynamics to determine this, leading there to be a lot of variability right now. Ultimately, a major hurricane is likely at landfall, but how major of one?

In summary, what is important is how the pressure falls change the pressure gradient, not so much just the pressure falls. Something in the storm is keeping the wind field from responding and it almost assuredly is the dual eyewall structure. How that evolves over the next day and a half will determine how the storm's wind field evolves up until landfall. Steady strengthening is possible as is a period of rapid intensification. Which will it be? Truly, it is tough to say.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 10 2008 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE Random Chaos   Fri Sep 12 2008 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE UKCloudgazer   Fri Sep 12 2008 04:58 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Raymond   Fri Sep 12 2008 04:44 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued cieldumort   Fri Sep 12 2008 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE Random Chaos   Fri Sep 12 2008 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Certain death... flahurricane   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Certain death... scottsvb   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:46 AM
. * * Hurricane Local Statement for IKE danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Uhh Ohh Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Certain death... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:35 AM
. * * Certain death... RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:29 AM
. * * Uhh Ohh danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:16 AM
. * * heading more west cause SeaMule   Fri Sep 12 2008 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued amazon   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Random Chaos   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued shewtinstar   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Rasvar   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued cieldumort   Thu Sep 11 2008 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 5 PM Discussion LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2008 07:58 PM
. * * Re: 5 PM Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 06:29 PM
. * * Re: 5 PM Discussion craigm   Thu Sep 11 2008 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 5 PM Discussion Hurikid   Thu Sep 11 2008 05:28 PM
. * * 5 PM Discussion danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued cieldumort   Thu Sep 11 2008 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 11 2008 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued jf   Thu Sep 11 2008 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued kromdog   Thu Sep 11 2008 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued pcola   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Geoff   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued txcntrygrl   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:38 PM
. * * Wave heights RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued txcntrygrl   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Ike size Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike size scottsvb   Thu Sep 11 2008 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Ike size Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 01:21 PM
. * * Ike vs. Katrina SeaMule   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Ike size Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Ike size Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Ike size Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Ike size danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:12 PM
. * * Ike size ShanaTX   Thu Sep 11 2008 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact pcola   Thu Sep 11 2008 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact HCW   Thu Sep 11 2008 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact HCW   Thu Sep 11 2008 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact Random Chaos   Thu Sep 11 2008 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact Raymond   Thu Sep 11 2008 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Galveston Bay surge impact Random Chaos   Thu Sep 11 2008 07:37 AM
. * * Galveston Bay surge impact RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Sep 11 2008 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2008 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued BillD   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued flahurricane   Thu Sep 11 2008 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Robert   Wed Sep 10 2008 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 10 2008 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued SeaMule   Wed Sep 10 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Allison   Wed Sep 10 2008 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Clark   Wed Sep 10 2008 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued mikethewreck   Wed Sep 10 2008 09:37 PM
. * * after seeing what we're seeing, what if? SeaMule   Wed Sep 10 2008 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued lennox   Wed Sep 10 2008 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued craigm   Wed Sep 10 2008 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued LoisCane   Wed Sep 10 2008 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 10 2008 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued WeatherNut   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued k___g   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued kromdog   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued weather999   Wed Sep 10 2008 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued craigm   Wed Sep 10 2008 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued craigm   Wed Sep 10 2008 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued david2   Wed Sep 10 2008 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Raymond   Wed Sep 10 2008 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 10 2008 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 10 2008 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued Random Chaos   Wed Sep 10 2008 05:31 PM

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