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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 233 (Idalia) , Major: 233 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 233 (Idalia) Major: 233 (Idalia)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version
      Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM Attachment (293 downloads)

Attached is last night's 23_00Z 200mb Analysis and please note the subtropical jet maxima and location of longwave trough. There are many examples of storm acquiring tropical storm status the moment a closed surface center is found. I have no way of knowing if what I'm looking at is a depression or a storm but it does look pretty darn good on satellite at the moment and some really cold tops. It wouldn't be hard to argue that the system is reorganizing itself farther south and this storm has any chance of maintaining itself struturally that is where it needs to be. As I said in a previous post; right now there is absolutely no way this system can encroach the US, not with that big longwave trough where it current is and the subrtopical jet maxima over the gulf coast. and up the eastern US coast. It would have to remain a shallow system to have any chance at all moving west where the upper air is favorable for development but once it gains vertical structure it can either remain stationary, or move north. That said, a few days from now things can change, Kyle is going to be much like Hanna; tough tough upper air environment.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Tue Sep 23 2008 06:47 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version metwannabe   Wed Sep 24 2008 07:51 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Wed Sep 24 2008 05:11 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 03:00 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 02:52 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 01:37 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Tue Sep 23 2008 01:27 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version LoisCane   Tue Sep 23 2008 12:58 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version scottsvb   Tue Sep 23 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Tue Sep 23 2008 08:58 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Ed in Va   Tue Sep 23 2008 08:43 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM
. * * Storms' Future Movement berrywr   Tue Sep 23 2008 06:31 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version LoisCane   Mon Sep 22 2008 07:53 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version metwannabe   Mon Sep 22 2008 07:48 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Mon Sep 22 2008 04:09 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 22 2008 02:06 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Mon Sep 22 2008 10:59 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version ftlaudbob   Mon Sep 22 2008 10:08 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Mon Sep 22 2008 09:39 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:35 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version metwannabe   Sun Sep 21 2008 09:14 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version M.A.   Sun Sep 21 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Ed in Va   Sun Sep 21 2008 07:10 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Sun Sep 21 2008 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again BillD   Sun Sep 21 2008 05:39 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Ed in Va   Sun Sep 21 2008 03:01 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Sun Sep 21 2008 02:54 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version k___g   Sun Sep 21 2008 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Hurikid   Sun Sep 21 2008 02:28 PM
. * * San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2008 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Hugh   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Hugh   Sun Sep 21 2008 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Rich B   Sun Sep 21 2008 07:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2008 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 20 2008 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again k___g   Sat Sep 20 2008 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again ltpat228   Sat Sep 20 2008 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again cosmicstorm   Sat Sep 20 2008 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again KikiFla   Sat Sep 20 2008 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again lawgator   Sat Sep 20 2008 11:17 AM

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