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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2671
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: October in the tropics
Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM

Very helpful that recon was able to fly Marco. It is pretty clear that Marco probably became a depression while still largely over land, and began rapidly intensifying as soon as it had completely pulled out over water. Teeny-tiny windfield, and very easy to miss the max winds by just remote sensing tools, and area buoy and ship reports.

Marco remains in a fairly favorable environment. Given its small size and likely continuation of at least a fairly favorable environment until landfall, continued intensification looks entirely possible. I might guess Marco has a decent chance of pulling an overnight surprise, a la Lorenzo and Humberto (2007).

On the other hand, as a very small tropical cyclone, Marco remains at the whim of any twist or turn of the upper-level winds, and as of this edit, there appears to be some increasing southwesterly shear interrupting things a bit more.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 06 2008 08:24 PM)

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Marco Forms in Bay of Campeche, moving Generally West	MikeC	Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM
Re: October in the tropics	cieldumort	Mon Oct 06 2008 11:41 PM
Re: October in the tropics	LoisCane	Mon Oct 06 2008 09:15 PM
Re: October in the tropics	cieldumort	Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM
Re: October in the tropics	Rich B	Mon Oct 06 2008 05:06 PM
Re: October in the tropics	cieldumort	Mon Oct 06 2008 10:51 AM

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