12:30AM Update - 05/23/09 Just as it seemed that the gulf low was written off, it has managed to develop some convection near the center. The low is still disorganized not close to being classified at this time, but the NHC has given the system a 30 - 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or so before it makes landfall.
10AM Update - 05/21/09 Upper level low pressure system beginning to develop a surface reflection near 25.5N 86W at 21/13Z and it is currently drifting to the north northeast. Upper level steering is weak (and the upper low is cut off) but forward motion should become more north northwesterly to northwesterly in the next day or two - perhaps more toward the Alabama/Mississippi state line - keeping Florida in the soup for another day or two. Flooding potential likely to continue in east central Florida through Friday with additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas. ED
7:00 PM Update 5/19/09 Chances for development have fallen off greatly, but we are still getting loads of rain in Central Florida.
10:00 PM Update 5/18/09 Nothing much new to report, models project the system to move more northward then westward across Florida. There is less than a 30% chance of anything developing from this system. Rain over Florida will continue to be enhanced by the system.
Winds will stay brisk because of the pressure gradient, closer to a subtropical or extratropical system.
Site fixes tonight include the animated model plots working (see bottom of this article), and a few other minor tweaks. General Info is still broken currently. (Pre-Season disturbance is rushing a few things)
2:30 PM Update 5/18/09 The system mentioned here is being tracked as Invest 90L now, being early, automated tracking here and on some other sites may take a while to show up.
Original Update It looks to be a wet week coming up across most of Florida.
A low pressure system near Cuba looks likely to interact with a frontal boundary causing a great deal of rain for mid-week here in Florida, with the gradient making it a bit windy. Although development isn't entirely likely, the system currently over Cuba has the potential to become somewhat tropical, although it likely will remain just a low pressure area.
Models (such as the GFS and EURO -- see some Here) currently project it to move into or just west of south Florida then stay west of Florida and move it into the Central Gulf near Alabama to Missouri. This may change later. There are no indications of strengthening, but it is worth watching. The front and the gradient should keep things wet and breezy in Florida through the middle of the week. This is good news for the fires in the Central Florida area, as long as the rain comes with the gradient winds.
Even though Hurricane Season does not officially start until June 1st, we will be watching it.
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