Been tracking this disturbance for the past few days ever since the computer models began suggesting this disturbance could develop and must say that this is the best structurally the disturbance has looked to date. Even though the convection has waned, the mid-level circulation has vastly improved as opposed to just 24 hours ago and it seems that it may now be starting to translate down to the surface as recent observations have been indicating shifting winds and the CIMSS 850 MB Vorticity Product indicates that low-level vorticity has been increasing. Also, wind shear has also been steadily decreasing over the system throughout the day and continues to do so according to the CIMSS Shear Tendency Product. Overall, it seems that we may indeed be watching some gradual development occuring with this disturbance.
Earlier on my CCHS Weather Center site I had created a graphic showing the driving forces behind the projected movement and eventual impact on Florida from this system. Below is the graphic. Graphic
I will have a new update regarding the system on my site sometime tomorrow. Have a good night you all and it feels to good to return to this great site.
Edited by cchsweatherman (Mon May 18 2009 02:06 AM)
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