Looks to me ( and as others have already observed ) that some low level swirl seems to have migrated to around 21N and 76W. Looks as if a broader mid level vorticity is slightly southeast ( perhaps around 20N & 75W ). While it is hard to really pinpoint which feature to follow, it would appear as if the overall motion now does seems to be between NNW and NW.
Looking at 0Z to 12Z data, my bet is on a UK/NAM solution. I think both have now for about 24 hours tracked a weak low ( 1004mb ) NNW to about West Palm Beach area, then turned it westward under a building ridge from the north, only to deepen the low a little in the E. Central Gulf, and finally northward from there. Latest NAM continues the thinking, except the timing a tad slower with a 1004 low just off S.E. Florida in about 42 hours. Forecast from there does the same but never really deepens the low to much in the Gulf.
All this aside, while SST's are certainly adequete for tropical develpment, the 12Z 200mb winds just seem to be screaming, and even after the trouph pulls out, while the upper air does appear to become more difluent, it still appears rather hostile for any real tropical system to develop. A nice anticyclone is starting to build in at the latter part of the forecast period but appears to be somewhat to the north and over the CONUS. Hard to see current forecast maps verify, and have more than a subtropical depression ( maybe weak TS ) at most in the 4-6 day range somewhere along the N. Gulf coast. Should be just what the doctor ordered - a good rainmaker!
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 35828
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center