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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development
      Mon May 18 2009 01:05 PM

Looks to me ( and as others have already observed ) that some low level swirl seems to have migrated to around 21N and 76W. Looks as if a broader mid level vorticity is slightly southeast ( perhaps around 20N & 75W ). While it is hard to really pinpoint which feature to follow, it would appear as if the overall motion now does seems to be between NNW and NW.

Looking at 0Z to 12Z data, my bet is on a UK/NAM solution. I think both have now for about 24 hours tracked a weak low ( 1004mb ) NNW to about West Palm Beach area, then turned it westward under a building ridge from the north, only to deepen the low a little in the E. Central Gulf, and finally northward from there. Latest NAM continues the thinking, except the timing a tad slower with a 1004 low just off S.E. Florida in about 42 hours. Forecast from there does the same but never really deepens the low to much in the Gulf.

All this aside, while SST's are certainly adequete for tropical develpment, the 12Z 200mb winds just seem to be screaming, and even after the trouph pulls out, while the upper air does appear to become more difluent, it still appears rather hostile for any real tropical system to develop. A nice anticyclone is starting to build in at the latter part of the forecast period but appears to be somewhat to the north and over the CONUS. Hard to see current forecast maps verify, and have more than a subtropical depression ( maybe weak TS ) at most in the 4-6 day range somewhere along the N. Gulf coast. Should be just what the doctor ordered - a good rainmaker!

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gulf Low MikeCAdministrator Mon May 18 2009 01:05 PM
. * * Re: great video MichaelA   Tue May 26 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: great video HCW   Tue May 26 2009 09:51 AM
. * * Re: great video metwannabe   Tue May 26 2009 09:25 AM
. * * Re: great video mikethewreck   Tue May 26 2009 03:47 AM
. * * great video LoisCane   Tue May 26 2009 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low HCW   Mon May 25 2009 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Mon May 25 2009 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low cieldumort   Sat May 23 2009 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Sat May 23 2009 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Hunter   Sat May 23 2009 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low JoshuaK2   Sat May 23 2009 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low mbfly   Sat May 23 2009 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Sat May 23 2009 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Bloodstar   Sat May 23 2009 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low cieldumort   Sat May 23 2009 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Cooper   Fri May 22 2009 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Hugh   Fri May 22 2009 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low LoisCane   Fri May 22 2009 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Hunter   Fri May 22 2009 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Marknole   Fri May 22 2009 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low HCW   Fri May 22 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low scottsvb   Fri May 22 2009 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low JoshuaK   Thu May 21 2009 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Hunter   Thu May 21 2009 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Thu May 21 2009 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 21 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low key   Thu May 21 2009 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Area in the Gulf for Development vineyardsaker   Thu May 21 2009 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JMII   Wed May 20 2009 06:33 PM
. * * Watching Area in the Gulf for Development danielwAdministrator   Wed May 20 2009 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Wed May 20 2009 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Wed May 20 2009 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development vineyardsaker   Wed May 20 2009 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Wed May 20 2009 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Tue May 19 2009 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Tue May 19 2009 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development weatherguy08   Tue May 19 2009 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Tue May 19 2009 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development HCW   Tue May 19 2009 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development adam s   Tue May 19 2009 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Rick99   Tue May 19 2009 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Tue May 19 2009 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development LoisCane   Mon May 18 2009 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Mon May 18 2009 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development k___g   Mon May 18 2009 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development mikethewreck   Mon May 18 2009 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Mon May 18 2009 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development k___g   Mon May 18 2009 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Storm Hunter   Mon May 18 2009 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Mon May 18 2009 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development rhendryx   Mon May 18 2009 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MichaelA   Mon May 18 2009 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 18 2009 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 18 2009 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Lois   Mon May 18 2009 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development byrdlh   Mon May 18 2009 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development LoisCane   Mon May 18 2009 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development weathernet   Mon May 18 2009 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development LoisCane   Mon May 18 2009 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Mon May 18 2009 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Beach   Mon May 18 2009 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MichaelA   Mon May 18 2009 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Mon May 18 2009 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development cchsweatherman   Sun May 17 2009 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area LoisCane   Sun May 17 2009 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area Storm Hunter   Sun May 17 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area craigm   Sun May 17 2009 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area HCW   Sun May 17 2009 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area JoshuaK   Sun May 17 2009 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area LoisCane   Sun May 17 2009 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area Lamar-Plant City   Sun May 17 2009 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area JoshuaK   Sun May 17 2009 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area weathernet   Sun May 17 2009 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area MichaelA   Sun May 17 2009 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area weathernet   Sun May 17 2009 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area Storm Cooper   Sun May 17 2009 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 12:19 PM
. * * Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Sun May 17 2009 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Sat May 16 2009 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Sat May 16 2009 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Sat May 16 2009 09:21 PM

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