Mobile NWS offers a great summation in the Afternoon Forecast Discussion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
SHORT TERM...FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WRAPAROUND DRY SLOT FROM THE MIDLEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM ALL THE WAY AROUND THE WESTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN AND THEN CUBA. THERE IS A 500 MB TROUGH THAT IS ALSO KEEPING THE AIR PRETTY COLD OVER THE SURFACE CENTER. VERY LITTLE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS BAROTROPIC...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE WITHIN THE LOW. ALL OF THAT BODES ILL FOR TROPICAL CONVECTION IN A DEEP MOIST LAYER THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT IN AN EASTERLY WAVE EVOLVING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR AROUND...ENTRAINMENT OF SAME INTO CUMULUS TOWERS WOULD KILL THEM OFF BEFORE ANY LONG LIVED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP. SO THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO TO LIGHT OFF SUCH A CONVECTIVE CORE REQUIRED TO TRANSITION IT INTO A WARM CORE SYSTEM SUCH THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURES COULD FALL. THAT IS...SLIM AND NONE ARE THE RANGES OF PROBABILITY THAT THIS LEOPARD WOULD CHANGE SPOTS TO STRIPES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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