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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Watching Area in the Gulf for Development
      Wed May 20 2009 05:32 PM

Mobile NWS offers a great summation in the Afternoon Forecast Discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2009

SHORT TERM...FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WRAPAROUND
DRY SLOT FROM THE MIDLEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM ALL THE WAY AROUND
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN AND THEN CUBA. THERE IS A 500 MB
TROUGH THAT IS ALSO KEEPING THE AIR PRETTY COLD OVER THE SURFACE
CENTER. VERY LITTLE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS BAROTROPIC...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE WITHIN THE LOW. ALL OF
THAT BODES ILL FOR TROPICAL CONVECTION IN A DEEP MOIST LAYER THAT ONE
WOULD EXPECT IN AN EASTERLY WAVE EVOLVING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR AROUND...ENTRAINMENT OF SAME INTO CUMULUS
TOWERS WOULD KILL THEM OFF BEFORE ANY LONG LIVED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. SO THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR
SO TO LIGHT OFF SUCH A CONVECTIVE CORE REQUIRED TO TRANSITION IT INTO
A WARM CORE SYSTEM SUCH THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURES COULD FALL. THAT
IS...SLIM AND NONE ARE THE RANGES OF PROBABILITY THAT THIS LEOPARD
WOULD CHANGE SPOTS TO STRIPES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=MOB&date=2009-05-20%2019:30:32

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gulf Low MikeCAdministrator Wed May 20 2009 05:32 PM
. * * Re: great video MichaelA   Tue May 26 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: great video HCW   Tue May 26 2009 09:51 AM
. * * Re: great video metwannabe   Tue May 26 2009 09:25 AM
. * * Re: great video mikethewreck   Tue May 26 2009 03:47 AM
. * * great video LoisCane   Tue May 26 2009 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low HCW   Mon May 25 2009 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Mon May 25 2009 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low cieldumort   Sat May 23 2009 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Sat May 23 2009 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Hunter   Sat May 23 2009 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low JoshuaK2   Sat May 23 2009 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low mbfly   Sat May 23 2009 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Sat May 23 2009 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Bloodstar   Sat May 23 2009 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low cieldumort   Sat May 23 2009 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Cooper   Fri May 22 2009 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Hugh   Fri May 22 2009 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low LoisCane   Fri May 22 2009 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Hunter   Fri May 22 2009 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Marknole   Fri May 22 2009 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low HCW   Fri May 22 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low scottsvb   Fri May 22 2009 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Low JoshuaK   Thu May 21 2009 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low Storm Hunter   Thu May 21 2009 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low danielwAdministrator   Thu May 21 2009 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 21 2009 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low key   Thu May 21 2009 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Area in the Gulf for Development vineyardsaker   Thu May 21 2009 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JMII   Wed May 20 2009 06:33 PM
. * * Watching Area in the Gulf for Development danielwAdministrator   Wed May 20 2009 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Wed May 20 2009 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Wed May 20 2009 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development vineyardsaker   Wed May 20 2009 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Wed May 20 2009 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Tue May 19 2009 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Tue May 19 2009 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development weatherguy08   Tue May 19 2009 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Tue May 19 2009 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development HCW   Tue May 19 2009 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development adam s   Tue May 19 2009 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Rick99   Tue May 19 2009 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Tue May 19 2009 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development LoisCane   Mon May 18 2009 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Mon May 18 2009 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development k___g   Mon May 18 2009 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development mikethewreck   Mon May 18 2009 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Mon May 18 2009 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development k___g   Mon May 18 2009 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Storm Hunter   Mon May 18 2009 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Mon May 18 2009 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development rhendryx   Mon May 18 2009 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MichaelA   Mon May 18 2009 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 18 2009 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 18 2009 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Lois   Mon May 18 2009 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development byrdlh   Mon May 18 2009 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development LoisCane   Mon May 18 2009 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development weathernet   Mon May 18 2009 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development LoisCane   Mon May 18 2009 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Mon May 18 2009 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development Beach   Mon May 18 2009 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MichaelA   Mon May 18 2009 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Mon May 18 2009 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development cchsweatherman   Sun May 17 2009 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area LoisCane   Sun May 17 2009 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area Storm Hunter   Sun May 17 2009 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area craigm   Sun May 17 2009 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area HCW   Sun May 17 2009 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area JoshuaK   Sun May 17 2009 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area LoisCane   Sun May 17 2009 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area Lamar-Plant City   Sun May 17 2009 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area JoshuaK   Sun May 17 2009 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area weathernet   Sun May 17 2009 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area MichaelA   Sun May 17 2009 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area weathernet   Sun May 17 2009 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area Storm Cooper   Sun May 17 2009 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 12:19 PM
. * * Development in Cuba Jamaica Area danielwAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 17 2009 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Sun May 17 2009 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development JoshuaK   Sat May 16 2009 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development docrod   Sat May 16 2009 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development scottsvb   Sat May 16 2009 09:21 PM

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