The system is 70% cold core...low level tropical moisture is being pulled north...but its COC is cold core. This doesnt have enough things going for it to become a subtropical storm.. I said 25% chance last night...and I'm sticking with that. The water infront of this is cooler in the mid 70s...right now its near 80 as of 6z Fri. Even though I dont think this will make a subtropical depression....tropical moisture from the lower levels along with the unstable cold core low in the mid levels will produce T-storms out as far as Florida..with this coming ashore in Louisiana.
Side note... models are persistant in the GFS,ECMWF and Nogaps on keeping pressures low in the bahamas and florida... a low may develop again near Cuba, southern Bahamas, or near Andros Island again and move north along the east coast of Florida early next week... 30% chance this will happen cause its too far out to actually really care. Don't want to say this has a chance cause windshear will be high until it reaches the northern Bahamas and Florida.. Water temps are marginal...but this will be more tropical like 90L and not what is in the GOM right now....if there is anything at all!
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