The system is 70% cold core...low level tropical moisture is being pulled north...but its COC is cold core. This doesnt have enough things going for it to become a subtropical storm.. I said 25% chance last night...and I'm sticking with that. The water infront of this is cooler in the mid 70s...right now its near 80 as of 6z Fri. Even though I dont think this will make a subtropical depression....tropical moisture from the lower levels along with the unstable cold core low in the mid levels will produce T-storms out as far as Florida..with this coming ashore in Louisiana.
Side note... models are persistant in the GFS,ECMWF and Nogaps on keeping pressures low in the bahamas and florida... a low may develop again near Cuba, southern Bahamas, or near Andros Island again and move north along the east coast of Florida early next week... 30% chance this will happen cause its too far out to actually really care. Don't want to say this has a chance cause windshear will be high until it reaches the northern Bahamas and Florida.. Water temps are marginal...but this will be more tropical like 90L and not what is in the GOM right now....if there is anything at all!
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 33971
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center