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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Another GOM Low?
      Tue Jun 02 2009 07:39 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-93W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 26N
AND E OF 89W. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS SE WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A WEAK LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/022330.shtml?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. ALL MODELS
SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOLUTION DEPICTS A
MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND 00Z EURO. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRACKS A WEAKER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE
LA COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z EURO SHOWS NO SUCH
FEATURE DEVELOPING. REGARDLESS OF HOW OR EVEN IF THIS LOW FORMS...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
BOTH MET AND MAV POPS INCREASE TO AT LEAST LIKELY MOST AREAS BY THE
3RD OR 4TH PERIOD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF TAKING A BLEND OF MOS POP/TEMP
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS EVENTUAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR CWA BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=TAE&date=2009-06-02%2018:52:54

Current Tallahassee NWS Forecast Discussion

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 02 2009 07:53 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today MikeCAdministrator Tue Jun 02 2009 07:39 PM
. * * Do you think they will name it? Beach   Mon Jun 22 2009 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Complex off of Florida Ed in Va   Thu Jun 18 2009 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Complex off of Florida MichaelA   Thu Jun 18 2009 12:07 PM
. * * Complex Crap off of Florida Beach   Thu Jun 18 2009 07:25 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? doug   Wed Jun 10 2009 04:14 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Adam S   Wed Jun 10 2009 02:41 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Tue Jun 09 2009 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Adam S   Tue Jun 09 2009 03:40 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Tue Jun 09 2009 02:30 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? ltpat228   Tue Jun 09 2009 08:23 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? canewars   Mon Jun 08 2009 11:26 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? buttman   Mon Jun 08 2009 07:53 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 08 2009 07:01 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Buttman   Mon Jun 08 2009 04:13 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? hogrunr   Mon Jun 08 2009 02:36 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Adam S   Mon Jun 08 2009 01:12 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Mon Jun 08 2009 10:45 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 08 2009 07:26 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? JoshuaK   Mon Jun 08 2009 01:40 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? scottsvb   Mon Jun 08 2009 12:13 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? cchsweatherman   Mon Jun 08 2009 12:01 AM
. * * dvorak... LoisCane   Sun Jun 07 2009 11:50 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? JoshuaK   Sun Jun 07 2009 11:34 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? LoisCane   Sun Jun 07 2009 10:41 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? JoshuaK   Sun Jun 07 2009 07:59 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? cchsweatherman   Sun Jun 07 2009 01:09 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MissBecky   Sun Jun 07 2009 09:19 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 07 2009 08:35 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? LoisCane   Sun Jun 07 2009 12:49 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Steve H1   Sat Jun 06 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Sat Jun 06 2009 03:55 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? scottsvb   Sat Jun 06 2009 01:54 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 05 2009 07:50 PM
. * * 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 05 2009 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Another GOM Low? hogrunr   Fri Jun 05 2009 04:33 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today k___g   Fri Jun 05 2009 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Another GOM Low? Steve H1   Thu Jun 04 2009 12:39 PM
. * * Another GOM Low? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 02 2009 07:39 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today ShanaTX   Tue Jun 02 2009 12:07 AM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today docrod   Mon Jun 01 2009 08:34 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today JoshuaK   Mon Jun 01 2009 08:03 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today docrod   Mon Jun 01 2009 06:43 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today Bloodstar   Mon Jun 01 2009 06:18 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today docrod   Mon Jun 01 2009 06:12 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today Jane   Mon Jun 01 2009 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today madmumbler   Mon Jun 01 2009 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today GoBigSurf   Mon Jun 01 2009 01:00 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today M.A.   Mon Jun 01 2009 08:45 AM

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