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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ??
      Fri Jun 05 2009 06:40 PM

Oops! Don't look now, but that bubble has burst already.

Sure, the 06Z and 12Z runs *yesterday* were all over this, with a substantial storm crossing central Cuba and entering the NW'ern Bahamas.

But each successive model run had the 'storm' slowing down appreciably and making it no further than Jamaica at the end of the run.

And now the latest GFS run has dropped this scenario altogether, forecasting, at best, a weak low languishing just off the tip of Honduras on days 5-7.

As I commented recently in the "Comedy Shop" forum:

Quote:

... on the other hand, one must be mindful of the fact that the GFS is often too 'bullish' on possible TC formation, due to 'convective feedback processes' within the model, and often overdoes the occurance and strength of warm core systems, especially at days 5 and beyond.

Sometimes, my "Tea Leaf Readings" provide better forecasts at Day 7. Just Joking !!




But it's really true of the GFS, especially in the Central Pacific, that it often produces "spurious" lows at days 3-5 and beyond. Keen forecasters often take the GFS's "bullish" predictions with a grain of salt, unless there is run-to-run consistancy and other models begin to pick up on it, too.

If the GFS were "spot on" (thankfully it's not!) Hawaii would have had about 15 landfalling storms and 'canes somewhere in these islands over the past decade. But, we've only had a brush with a much-weakened Flossie 2 years ago, and nothing major since Cat 4 Iniki in '92 that flattened Kauai, mere weeks after Andrew obliterated South Dade, my old 'stomping grounds', having been a Coconut Grove resident back in the 70's. But I digress.

From looking at the latest SST charts for the Atlantic basin, I noticed that the warmest SST's (and hence the greatest 'Oceanic Heat Content') are in the area where the GFS had forecast genesis. I can only surmise that it was this 'hot spot' that the GFS was picking up on yesterday, and in typical fashion, 'overdoing' it by cooking up a cyclone from the 'presumed' convection to flare and organize there in the coming days.

I think it likely that the NW Caribbean *will* be a favored area for storm development in a week or two, but not *within* the next week, as the GFS was indicating yesterday.

But then again, stranger things have happened!

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today MikeCAdministrator Fri Jun 05 2009 06:40 PM
. * * Do you think they will name it? Beach   Mon Jun 22 2009 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Complex off of Florida Ed in Va   Thu Jun 18 2009 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Complex off of Florida MichaelA   Thu Jun 18 2009 12:07 PM
. * * Complex Crap off of Florida Beach   Thu Jun 18 2009 07:25 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? doug   Wed Jun 10 2009 04:14 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Adam S   Wed Jun 10 2009 02:41 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Tue Jun 09 2009 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Adam S   Tue Jun 09 2009 03:40 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Tue Jun 09 2009 02:30 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? ltpat228   Tue Jun 09 2009 08:23 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? canewars   Mon Jun 08 2009 11:26 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? buttman   Mon Jun 08 2009 07:53 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 08 2009 07:01 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Buttman   Mon Jun 08 2009 04:13 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? hogrunr   Mon Jun 08 2009 02:36 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Adam S   Mon Jun 08 2009 01:12 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Mon Jun 08 2009 10:45 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 08 2009 07:26 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? JoshuaK   Mon Jun 08 2009 01:40 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? scottsvb   Mon Jun 08 2009 12:13 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? cchsweatherman   Mon Jun 08 2009 12:01 AM
. * * dvorak... LoisCane   Sun Jun 07 2009 11:50 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? JoshuaK   Sun Jun 07 2009 11:34 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? LoisCane   Sun Jun 07 2009 10:41 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? JoshuaK   Sun Jun 07 2009 07:59 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? cchsweatherman   Sun Jun 07 2009 01:09 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MissBecky   Sun Jun 07 2009 09:19 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 07 2009 08:35 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? LoisCane   Sun Jun 07 2009 12:49 AM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? Steve H1   Sat Jun 06 2009 09:04 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? MichaelA   Sat Jun 06 2009 03:55 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? scottsvb   Sat Jun 06 2009 01:54 PM
. * * Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 05 2009 07:50 PM
. * * 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 05 2009 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Another GOM Low? hogrunr   Fri Jun 05 2009 04:33 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today k___g   Fri Jun 05 2009 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Another GOM Low? Steve H1   Thu Jun 04 2009 12:39 PM
. * * Another GOM Low? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 02 2009 07:39 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today ShanaTX   Tue Jun 02 2009 12:07 AM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today docrod   Mon Jun 01 2009 08:34 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today JoshuaK   Mon Jun 01 2009 08:03 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today docrod   Mon Jun 01 2009 06:43 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today Bloodstar   Mon Jun 01 2009 06:18 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today docrod   Mon Jun 01 2009 06:12 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today Jane   Mon Jun 01 2009 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today madmumbler   Mon Jun 01 2009 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today GoBigSurf   Mon Jun 01 2009 01:00 PM
. * * Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today M.A.   Mon Jun 01 2009 08:45 AM

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