Oops! Don't look now, but that bubble has burst already.
Sure, the 06Z and 12Z runs *yesterday* were all over this, with a substantial storm crossing central Cuba and entering the NW'ern Bahamas.
But each successive model run had the 'storm' slowing down appreciably and making it no further than Jamaica at the end of the run.
And now the latest GFS run has dropped this scenario altogether, forecasting, at best, a weak low languishing just off the tip of Honduras on days 5-7.
As I commented recently in the "Comedy Shop" forum:
... on the other hand, one must be mindful of the fact that the GFS is often too 'bullish' on possible TC formation, due to 'convective feedback processes' within the model, and often overdoes the occurance and strength of warm core systems, especially at days 5 and beyond.
Sometimes, my "Tea Leaf Readings" provide better forecasts at Day 7. Just Joking !!
But it's really true of the GFS, especially in the Central Pacific, that it often produces "spurious" lows at days 3-5 and beyond. Keen forecasters often take the GFS's "bullish" predictions with a grain of salt, unless there is run-to-run consistancy and other models begin to pick up on it, too.
If the GFS were "spot on" (thankfully it's not!) Hawaii would have had about 15 landfalling storms and 'canes somewhere in these islands over the past decade. But, we've only had a brush with a much-weakened Flossie 2 years ago, and nothing major since Cat 4 Iniki in '92 that flattened Kauai, mere weeks after Andrew obliterated South Dade, my old 'stomping grounds', having been a Coconut Grove resident back in the 70's. But I digress.
From looking at the latest SST charts for the Atlantic basin, I noticed that the warmest SST's (and hence the greatest 'Oceanic Heat Content') are in the area where the GFS had forecast genesis. I can only surmise that it was this 'hot spot' that the GFS was picking up on yesterday, and in typical fashion, 'overdoing' it by cooking up a cyclone from the 'presumed' convection to flare and organize there in the coming days.
I think it likely that the NW Caribbean *will* be a favored area for storm development in a week or two, but not *within* the next week, as the GFS was indicating yesterday.
But then again, stranger things have happened!