HPC mentioning something in the coming week of a tropical disturbance in the Isthmus of Panema area. Forecast to move northward slowly to near the Honduran/ Nicaraugan Coastal areas. Multi-model forecast as of this afternoon.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2009
...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE GULF/WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THIS PROCESS...IT WILL INDUCE THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 30-36 HRS...WHILE FAVORING FORMATION OF A CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE LATEST RUN (12Z) OF THE GFS FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION/DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WITH LATEST EVOLUTION CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GOLFO DE LOS MOSQUITOS/ BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA BY 36-42 HRS...AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS/PUERTO LEMPIRA BY 72-84 HRS.
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