Interesting comment in the long-term forecast today for Tampa:
ON A SIDE NOTE THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FL ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z DGEX SHOW SOMEWHAT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENTS BUT ARE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW LEAVES LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST (SATURDAY)...SO FOR NOW WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND DEPICT CLIMO-LEVEL POPS (30%) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IF THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS CURRENT TRENDS AND OTHER MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH IT...THEN RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.
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