well I think there are really two *separate* percentages in your question.
1. What are the chances that this turns into a TC of some kind? Right now, the NHC puts the percentage at 30%, I think considering the affects of the shear as well as how much convection is present, that is a fair percentage.
2. Will this hit south Florida? This is anybody's guess, but because of it's position at the base of a trough system, it will be going north somewhere. How far East or West just depends on timing.
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