TNumbers remain 1.5/1.5 with the system east of the islands. Microwave data also suggests winds of around 25 knots, and rain rates in excess of 25mm/hr. There is good banding especially to the west and south of the broad circulation. The upper level outflow is also excellent with anticyclonic conditions aloft. However, well everything looks so favourable just remember TD#6... NHC stated with that system that 4 out of the 5 criteria for rapid intensification were filled... yet it fell apart and died! I guess it shows... these things will do exactly what THEY want to do, and when they want to do it. Regardless, i still think this will be a TD soon, with possible problems for the northern Islands a couple of days down the line.
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