4:45 PM EDT 3:45PM CDT Update August 16 2009 Claudette has windows around 50MPH, the center of Claudette was exposed for a bit, to keep it a bit weaker, but the rest of the system is trying to fire. It is going west of Indian Pass and will likely make landfall overnight west of Panama City, closer to Miramar Beach.
It is moving mostly Northwest around 14 mph.
Ana weakens to a Tropical Depression, most of the convection is to the north. Aircraft recon is still hunting for it. It is possible Ana will be dropped later tonight if the Recon cannot find a circulation center.
Bill is on the verge of becoming this year's first hurricane, which it may do later tonight or tomorrow. More evidence that it will recurve away from the Caribbean and mainland is there, and it is starting to gain latitude now. Bermuda may have to watch Bill later.
1:55 PM EDT 12:55PM CDT Update August 16 2009
Claudette has an official advisory. 50MPH Winds, 1008mb pressure (from recon), and moving Northwest at 14MPH.
It will come close to Indian Pass (near Pt. St. Joe) if it does go over, it may make landfall around 2-3PM CDT (3-4PM EDT), if it stays to the west, it will not make landfall until late tonight around Panama City Beach.
12:15 EDT Update Aug 16 TD#4 Has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette A special statement was issued, and the 2PM advisory will reflect Claudette.
10:45 AM EDT Update Aug 16 TD#4 remains that way for 11AM, the National Hurricane Center is waiting on a recon flight to make any further upgrade decisions.
If it misses the first landfall opportunity this afternoon, then it will likely landfall in the Evening. 50-55MPH winds in that case, still under Hurricane Force. I wouldn't go out in that weather tonight.
9:40 AM EDT Update Aug 16 TD#4 is likely to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm at 11. However based on the current forward motion on Radar it may landfall as early as 2PM (1PM CDT) today or more likely sometime this evening.
It's running out of time to organize much, but it should be a rainy windy and generally nasty day where it makes landfall, but nothing too bad. Surge may be 4-6 feet along the coast to the east of where the center makes landfall, however. It could spawn some weaker tornadoes across the area as well.
Original Update Tropical Depression Four forms from 90L in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is moving north northwest around 16mph. It is expected to landfall in the Western Florida Panhandle as a Tropical Storm tonight into early tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for... Florida/Alabama border east to the Suwanee River.
TD#4 is a small storm and effects are likely to be around the center. It is expected to become a weak Tropical Storm, name would be Claudette. See Local Statements when they arrive.
Ana Remains a Tropical Storm for Now. Watches and Warnings for the Leewards/PR/VI still are up.
Bill has gained a little bit of strength, future track still leans toward curving out to sea.
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