Area of Concern - TD#4 - Update

Update - 08/16 10AM (CDST)
Tallahassee radar confirms both a center location and a continued direction of movement to the northwest - in fact, almost west northwest. Its likely that the ridge to the north is forcing more of a westerly component into the forward motion. This could keep the depression over water for a longer period of time and allow for additional intensification. For now, it looks like landfall more to the west in the Florida panhandle to Alabama area later in the afternoon or this evening.
ED

Original Post
Tropical Depression 04L located offshore Tampa area at 16/14Z moving generally to the north. The cyclone is expanding almost as fast as it is moving which makes th actual direction of movement somewhat difficult to determine, but Tampa radar helps with that. Expect an upgrade soon to Tropical Storm Claudette with perhaps an adjustment of the track a little to the right. This would favor landfall in the Apalachee Bay area near St. Marks which is south of Tallahassee. A westward extension of the Atlantic ridge over north Florida should tighten the pressure gradient and produce surface winds in the 50-60mph range in the area vicinity of the center at landfall. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are likely in the affected area of the Florida panhandle.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 16 2009 11:22 AM)

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