Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

01/10Z - Good morning! At first glance you'd think 94L is a Tropical Depression, possibly a Tropical Storm. Once again, the upper environment directly over 94L and to its right is downright perfect for development; the problems arise with the upper low to the north of Hispanola and strong SW shear immediately to it's east and immediately to 94L's west and north. We're all looking at satellite and telling ourselve it looks like its ready to be promoted to tropical storm status. I don't have at my disposal what the shear forecast is along the path of the storm nor the array of charts and model data NHC has. A snapshot of the upper environment currently on its projected course is downright hostile for the time being and closer examination of the satellite interpretation reveals this to be true if you look at the higher cloud tops to the west and north of what we believe is the center of the system.

Looking at the overall pattern this morning, not much has changed since this time yesterday. Looking at new model data and what we all know is true about dying fronts in the GOM and Atlantic is it looks like they're trying to cook something up off the Atlantic Coast, but before I buy into that we all have to keep in mind what the overall pattern is right now and that is there is a longwave trough over the eastern half of the US and it is broad. Borrowing a page from Danny, any shortwave energy dropping into the base of the trough and ejecting northeast is likely to promote cyclogenesis along the old front; in this case, not likely to be tropical, but extratropical. As long as the longwave is there GOM is closed to tropical formation and in fact shear analysis only supports an area near the FL keys that has an environment friendly for development. Anything does develop it will be a dynamic system; not tropical.

All that said, it's possible 94L could be designated either a strong tropical depression or weak storm. There is no way at this time the system can develop in front of the shear that is in front of it unless the light environment that is over and immediately to its east rides with the storm. The upper low is expected to remain in the area at least through H+48 hours and upper ridge to the north of the system. After that, upper models get interesting and I wouldn't be surprised based on what I'm looking at that the systems meanders around north of Puerto Rico and if that happens then all bets are off as the longwave trough over the east weakens and the upper ridge in the Atlantic begins to make its presence known. In fairness, the models don't have a good handle on 94L and barely even pick it up at the upper levels, but it is there in the low levels.

Bottom line 94L for the near future has a tough road to hoe with shear ahead of the system; as we move forward and upper pattern changes, stay tune. I don't think whatever cyclogenesis occurs off the Atlantic coast will have anything to do with 94L which too far away at this time; unlike Danny, who got absorbed as the upper low ejecting out of the SE USA a few days ago. I'm not as confident long term as I was yesterday and day before with this system staying away from the United States.

Finally, our thoughts and prayers are with our Baja California neighbors.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Tue Sep 01 2009 07:03 AM)

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