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96L may form tomorrow, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should watch it closely. Too soon to tell beyond that.
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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Erratic Erika
      Wed Sep 02 2009 10:59 AM

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

.....DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.


....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST.


The forecast is about as erratic as Erika at this point...hard for anyone to tell.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erika Likely to Dissipate over the next Several Days MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 02 2009 10:59 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... craigm   Thu Sep 03 2009 06:38 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... JoshuaK   Thu Sep 03 2009 04:16 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 03 2009 03:03 AM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... scottsvb   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:27 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:37 PM
. * * Re: she is coming back.... Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further craigm   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:58 PM
. * * she is coming back.... SeaMule   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Cape Weather   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Robert   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further ftlaudbob   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further LoisCane   Wed Sep 02 2009 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Bloodstar   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further LoisCane   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Robert   Wed Sep 02 2009 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further weathernet   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further Lamar-Plant City   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Erratic Erika hogrunr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Erratic Erika berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Lamar-Plant City   Wed Sep 02 2009 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika berrywr   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Hawkeyewx   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Evan Johnson   Wed Sep 02 2009 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 05:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika docrod   Wed Sep 02 2009 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 02 2009 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika hogrunr   Tue Sep 01 2009 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika LoisCane   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika k___g   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika craigm   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 01 2009 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika scottsvb   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika WeatherNut   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 01 2009 06:25 PM

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