TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THERE ARE MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
.....DESPITE ALL THIS SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.
....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.
The forecast is about as erratic as Erika at this point...hard for anyone to tell.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 29006
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center