TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THERE ARE MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
.....DESPITE ALL THIS SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.
....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.
The forecast is about as erratic as Erika at this point...hard for anyone to tell.
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