Interestingly the various models are often slow to pick up some tropical systems, and yet they can be equally slow to "let go" or weaken a system. Given the current appearance, along with the newer data suggesting a less obvious lower level ( 300mb ) shear at play, and then potentially add in a possible factor of interaction with land ( Puerto Rico perhaps ), one would have to re-think the near term health of this particular tropical system. I for one, fully anticipated continued strengthening based on looking at more simplified single level 200mb charts and Erica's projected motion. I will say this however, "if" a relativly healthy mid level is maintained, and without getting fully dragged over most of the Greater Antilles, and somehow maintains some convective identity while slowly moving more or less WNW over time, it would be extremely prudent for those in the Bahamas and Florida to remain keenly aware that given the right conditions, tropical systems can develop fairly quickly.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 26658
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center