Erika continues to be sheared from the west, with an exposed LLC moving generally just north of due west out ahead of the mass of convection to the east. The shearing is occurring between a trough axis extending from about 27N, 62W to 21N, 73W and an upper level ridge just to the east of Erika (i.e. not far from the deepest convection). Thus, we get a mess of a situation: Erika's LLC is located along the axis of strongest upper level winds, while the convection is situated to the east in the region of strongest upper level divergence (winds spreading apart at upper levels favors rising motion and thus often convection).
Satellite imagery hints at a mid-level vortex located within the convective mass, as it did yesterday, but there haven't really been any signs of the surface center reforming underneath it. As such, the vortex keeps chugging westward, steered by the low level trade winds. If the surface center were to re-form under the deep convection, Erika might have a fighting shot, but it's got Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico to deal with shortly down the line. Plus, the shear doesn't look to abate all that much over the next few days.
While it's not impossible for Erika to regain strength, there's a lot stacking up against it doing so. Florida should keep an eye on it, of course, but this looks more like another Ana or Danny than anything else right now.
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Re: Weak Erika Slowly Moving Toward Puerto Rico
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