Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Fred Now A Hurricane Moving to the West Northwest
Fri Sep 04 2009 09:02 PM
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Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 11PM
Fred has reached minimal hurricane status. Movement is to the west northwest with a gradual turn more to the north likely in a few days. A small eye is now evident.
Hurricane Fred
The remains of what was Invest 95L showing signs of activity near 21N 40W at 09/03Z.
ED
Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 1045AM
Just a short update for the Mid-Atlantic wave now located at 19.3N 57.5W at 08/14Z. Wave with a well-defined LLCC is moving west northwest at 15 knots - wind about 25 knots and pressure around 1010MB. Westerly windshear is expected to decline in a day or so.
Fred is now a strong Tropical Storm - currently moving west but expected to turn more to the northwest.
ED
Update, Tuesday Sept 8, 1215AM
The by-line at the top really says it all. Monday Invest 96L became TD#7 which intensified to minimal Tropical Storm Fred by evening in the far eastern Atlantic. Fred should become a strong tropical storm before encountering southwesterly windshear in a few days. Slow movement to the west northwest, then northwest to north northwest.
A non-tropical low just off the North Carolina shore should move slowly to the north northeast but chances for tropical transition are low - windshear again.
A small tropical wave with a weak low-level circulation is located near 18.5N 55W at 08/04Z. Movement is to the west in an area of westerly windshear.
ED
Update, Sunday Sept 6, 5PM
95l is no longer being tracked, but another wave off Africa has been designated 96L. Nothing conclusive yet from it, but it has a 30-50% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. If anything develops, again most likely out to sea, and if it stays weaker, it will likely go further west. The wave right now is looking fairly impressive, it it holds together like it has overnight it could form fairly quick.
Another area southeast of South Carolina is being watched for possible development because of its proximity to land, but it has less than a 30% chance of development.
Update, Saturday Sept 5, 1PM
Invest 95L has taken a more northwesterly track with no significant change in convection while the tropical wave to its west southwest is moving west northwest - and both are experiencing southwesterly windshear. Potential for further development will be impeded by this windshear.
An area of cyclonic turning in the southeast Gulf of Mexico west southwest of Naples can be found near 25.5N 83.3W at 05/17Z. A fair amount of disorganized convection extends to the east over the Keys and the southern Florida peninsula. Windshear is quite light in this area and the SST is about 30C. No movement is evident at this time.
Portions of Puerto Rico have been and will continue to receive heavy rainfall from the convective shield that was associated with the former tropical cyclone Erika.
We'll keep an eye on all of these areas for any additional development or demise.
ED
Original Post
The remnant low of what was once Erika is itself no longer even a remnant. Attention now turns to the far eastern Atlantic where Invest 95L is slowly churning to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with a tropical circulation near 13.5N 30W at 05/00Z. The Invest area is currently moving to the west at 16 knots and some of the initial model runs take the system on a west northwest to northwest track over the next few days. Four other tropical waves are noted over the north central African continent.
No other tropical activity of significance is currently noted in the shear-plagued basin - certainly unusual as the climatological peak of the season approaches.
ADDED:
Another wave near 14N 39W at 05/03Z has also started to fire up a small area of convection.
ED
{{StormLinks|Hurricane Fred|07|7|2009|1|Hurricane Fred}}
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 08 2009 11:37 PM)
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