F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 233 (Idalia) , Major: 233 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 233 (Idalia) Major: 233 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
TD #20-E Expected to Deepen Explosively to Cat. 4
      Thu Oct 15 2009 06:41 PM

A tropical wave that crossed Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific a couple days ago has organized into Tropical Depression #20-E, about 375 miles SSE of Acapulco. Most of the global models have been forecasting tropical cyclone formation in this area for several days, and the storm seems to be consolidating nicely.

Nearly all models are expecting TD #20-E (which will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Rick later tonight or tomorrow morning) to intensify rapidly over the next 72 hours. The NHC is taking the intensity up to 115 kts. in 5 days. The NHC is usually pretty conservative with the intesity of newly-formed storms, and I don't know that I've ever seen them forecast category 4 intensity on the very first advisory. It is passing over some of the warmest water in the basin (over 30C) and shear looks very low, so these numbers look realistic, if not a little conservative.

Baja California is really going to have to watch this one. The official NHC forecast has 20-E about 350 miles SW of the southern tip in 5 days, and bending north. Past GFS runs have been taking it across Baja in the 6-7 day period. I would expect some recon aircraft will be flying into the storm at some point.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD #20-E Expected to Deepen Explosively to Cat. 4 vpbob21 Thu Oct 15 2009 06:41 PM
. * * Tropical Depression 20E Forms - MAJOR Hurricane Expected CoconutCandy   Thu Oct 15 2009 07:25 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 3534

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center