*edit* Raising my numbers after further study. In particular, trends continue *rapidly* developing in favor of a season of substantially lower-than-average shear, average to above average moisture content (perhaps much above average once the African monsoon kicks in), significantly lower MSLP, significantly enhanced instabilities, greater numbers of potential disturbances with which to build upon, and low and lowering SAL.
Additionally, historical trends since 1995 suggest that even an unimpressive, "average" season during these years would yield roughly 14-15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. Barring any unforeseen changes, this year continues turning up to have the potential to best those figures by at least 20%.
My newly adjusted best guesses are now as follows:
19 storms total (named in real-time and/or added post-season), of which 11 become hurricanes, of which 6 become major hurricanes.
Happy New Year, everyone.
It looks like a number of us are generally clustered around in above to well-above average numbers.
Given the likelihood of an Atlantic hurricane season that, as mentioned here and elsewhere, is currently following many similar trends as seen during 1958, 1969, 1998, 2005 and other very active years, calling for numbers considerably above the long-term average makes plenty of sense.
I'm finding my eagerness to join the chorus maybe only a little held in check by lots of seasonal shear and drier air still bantering about, some still cooler SSTs closer to home in regions that are typically more favorable for early development, relatively less activity and generally drier conditions over western Africa, and a potentially unknown variable in the form of a very large oil slick coating a TBD surface area, which could, in theory, hold back at least some statistically significant heat transferability.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu May 27 2010 06:22 AM)