MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wave in Western Caribbean Being Watched
Mon Jun 21 2010 06:55 AM
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8 AM EDT Update 25 June 2010
The wave in the western Caribbean (93L) has a decent shot (70%) of developing before hitting the Yucatan, but is still a bit disorganized, but becoming more and more organized, this morning The best chance of development now is tonight or tomorrow, if it does. There is some shear in the area where it is at they may keep it from developing before it reaches the Yucatan, once back in the gulf is a different matter.
Once past the Yucatan it may enter the western Gulf and have another shot at development, and at this point it gets a bit spread out, most likely would be near the Texas/Mexico border, but there is enough model spread to make it worth watching across the rest of the Gulf too.
Hurricane Darby in the East Pacific will likely influence and be influenced by 93L as it gets into the Gulf. Intensity wise, since it's so close to the coast and will be arriving in the Yucatan, along with some shear, and the June factor, it is still very difficult to say.
Aircraft recon will arrive in the area around 2PM to check it out, and it looks as if it is a go today. If it continues to organize like it has been this morning, it may be called as a depression this afternoon.
{{StormLinks|Invest 93L|93|1|2010|1|}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 94L|94|2|2010|2|}}
{{StormCarib}}
There is another area east of the Leeward Islands that has a low chance of development (10%) over the next few days, it is not being tracked as an invest area as of this morning.
8 PM EDT Update 24 June 2010
The wave now entering the west Caribbean (93L) has reached far enough west to kick up the chances to 60%, if it were to develop tomorrow through Saturday seems the most likely time, especially if it develops convection overnight. There is shear north of the system that may keep in in check and not develop.
It is expected to near Honduras/Nicaragua, but stay to the north and head into the Yucatan, it likely will have a chance to develop then. Once back in the gulf it may have a chance to strengthen, but it seems shear/dry air may enter into the equation the further north it gets. Those in the Yucatan and Gulf states need to monitor the wave.
Overall though, the most likely scenario still remains that it will stay mostly weak and move toward the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
7 AM EDT Update 24 June 2010
The wave in the Caribbean, with an apparent low level circulation southwest of Jamaica, is still holding on, but is taking the slow road toward development. The window for development is tonight through Saturday. The most likely scenario, still, is for it to enter the Yucatan with rain, and it may not develop before it gets there (or very late).
Models are very divergent on where it may eventually go, but the weaker condition of the storm suggests more westerly into the Yucatan. In short, in common with most undeveloped systems, they are still mostly unhelpful.
In short not much has changed with this all week, and it is still very worth watching in the Gulf and Yucatan for changes.
Currently Recon is scheduled to go out there this afternoon, it may be canceled if it doesn't look more organized close to then. (Update: It was canceled this morning)
7 AM EDT Update 22 June 2010
This morning the tropical wave in the central Caribbean (93L) is now south of Hispaniola and moving slowly toward the west, chances for development over the next two days are very low, but improve either Late tomorrow or Friday. Then it may have a better chance for development.
Most of the convection is a bit further north than before, which may actually slow development. IF the system stays further north or east conditions aren't as favorable for development, so this system ever developing is not a guaranteed thing.
This morning the most likely scenario still remains that it will stay mostly weak and move toward the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, and may enter the southern Gulf after that.
There is enough possible deviation from that to keep it under watch. Intensity models are still a bit useless while there is no formed system, and exact track is a bit up in the air. Those in the the Gulf from the Panhandle and west of Florida and the Yucatan are the ones that should be watching it the closest, and recon is scheduled to go out to this system tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully this will enhance data enough to adjust the models and forecasts to get a clearer picture of what may happen.
7 AM EDT Update 21 June 2010
The wave in the central Caribbean sea is very slowly organizing, and is in an area not known for development at present. According to the National Hurricane Center It currently has a 40% chance for development over the next two days. It has formed somewhat of a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a low level circulation currently. This likely will keep it a wave for a while, maybe until Thursday evening or Friday. However, aircraft recon is still scheduled to check the system out tomorrow.
There is enough divergence in the models to suggest that it should be watched over the next several days. The most likely track remains into the Yucatan with mostly rain. However, this all depends on a ridge possibly developing along the central and northern Gulf, which would likely keep the system further west.
Since there is no discernible low level circulation, intensity and track models aren't as useful at the moment other than trends over time.
This will have to be monitored all week to see what happens this weekend into next week.
The most likely scenario is still that 93L impacts Yucatan Mexico with rain.
9:30PM EDT Update 21 June 2010
The first signs of a low level circulation are beginning to appear, upping chances for development to about 50%. The circulation is roughly around 14.0N 72.0W. Assuming it maintains itself, it may be upgraded to a depression tomorrow, or more likely after recon gets out there on Wednesday.
Models are still a bit too soon to believe, the latest GFDL run appears too far to the north.
6PM EDT Update 21 June 2010
The wave in the Eastern Caribbean Sea (93L) is a rather large system, but currently lacks a low level circulation. Conditions around it support a low chance for tropical development, but if it can hold together the largest chances will be when it reaches the western Caribbean sea later in the week.
Earlier forecast model runs overdid the system. This system has a better chance to develop than last week's 92L, but still the overall odds are against development. The most likely scenario is that it remains a wave or a tropical depression and moves its way into the Yucatan. While the system does not have a low level circulation, models won't be of much use.
Watching the model trends over the week, and signs for more circulation is important. There is a recon flight scheduled out for Wednesday, which is probably the best opportunity for real data and I don't expect it to be upgraded (if it is at all) before that.
Again the June factor along with the Jet are probably the biggest factors against development right now. If it has a circulation when it enters the west Caribbean, then chances go up quite a bit and could actually form into something.
In short watch it closely, but ihe wave known as 93L is most likely to impact Mexico with rain.
9:15AM EDT Update 21 June 2010
The wave in the eastern Caribbean is now being tracked as 93L, which will allow for more focus, models, and analysis on it shortly.
Long range guesses and discussion of the models can be found at the forecast lounge.
Original Update
June is usually a quiet month for development without much activity to consider. This year is a bit different in that we have had one wave that we have watcher over the week, 92L, that has been torn up.
This week we have another wave in the eastern Caribbean that some of the models are picking up on, it it currently near the lesser Antilles, and at the moment, is not being tracked as an investigation area.
Attention is being placed upon it based on long range models at the moment, because one (the ECMWF/euro and Canadian models) have presented the "high hype" scenario into the Gulf. This means it's worth watching over the next few days, but that scenario right now is currently a bit of a stretch . But it will be an area to watch over the week to see where it goes and if it survives the trek across the Caribbean. There isn't a lot of data available in the region it will likely pass over in the next few days. Friday is the most likely time for development, when it gets into the western Caribbean.
Chances of the area developing in the next 48 hours are about 20%, it will likely have a better chance to develop in a couple days, if it does. We'll be watching.
You can discuss the system's long range models here at Forecast Lounge, on the models.
{{StormCarib}}
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