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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge
Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM

You're correct, GFS has it plotted near the FL coast. The feature to the left is the GFS initializing an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and closing it off in about 72 hours which I believe is why it has Alex near FL on day 5. I spoke of this in the lounge; we cannot dismiss the shear that is currently near 22N latitude stretching from west to east. For the moment, TD1/Alex won't survive the track into the GOM in the here and now. Don't get me wrong it will enter the GOM but as a shallow system. None of the models are taking this system to hurricane strength other than the GFDL. A track to the west of the spill is not in the best interest of all concerned; a track towards FL while it will freak the daylights out of everybody isn't a bad thing for the oil on the surface given the winds ahead of the storm and a trajectory towards FL...initially they would be from the east but eventually a FL landfall would allow winds to back (counter clock) from east to northeast to north to northwest. A TX or TX/LA approach will initiate a fetch of south and southeast winds and some piling of water into all points east...assuming Alex is of any significance in development.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Alex Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Rick99	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Rick99	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	allan	Wed Jun 30 2010 11:21 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	mwillis	Wed Jun 30 2010 11:48 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 PM
this is a huge storm	SeaMule	Mon Jun 28 2010 09:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Rick99	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Rick99	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:00 PM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	Ed in Va	Fri Jun 25 2010 09:35 PM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	TheOtherRick	Fri Jun 25 2010 09:56 PM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	TheOtherRick	Sun Jun 27 2010 09:13 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	TheOtherRick	Fri Jun 25 2010 11:06 PM

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