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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2211
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex
      Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM

To answer a few questions:
The thought that a hurricane can get strong enough to change its surrounding environment to the extent that the changed environment can alter the track (or intensity) of the hurricane is now considered to be a myth by most tropical meteorologists - at least as far as the 'track change' capability goes. For intensity, a strong storm generates a stronger anticyclone aloft (because of the outflow) so a minor environmental increase in intensity is possible (with ocean heat content as the primary driver for intensification - or decay). In rare cases a Cat V Hurricane may seem to alter the environment, but in order for a tropical cyclone to attain Cat V, the environment cannot be hostile to begin with.

Now for the models. For the last couple of days, NHC has consistently stated in the Discussion bulletin that the east coast trough that cause a northward drift of Alex (and created shear that hindered the intensification process) would lift out to the north and east and that the western extention of the Atlantic ridge would redevelop over the northern Gulf of Mexico and curve Alex off to the northwest and eventually west northwest as that redevelopment occured. That process started last night and will continue today, tonight and tomorrow. There is nothing magical or complex about it - it is a very simple meteorological process. The models react based upon the data that is available for any given model run - and since that data varies, so does the model outputs from run-to-run. The models are guidance in determining the forecast, but they are not the forecast itself . NHC missed the last 24 hour forecast point for 29/12Z by about 25 miles - not too shabby at all.

The intensity models are also just guidance - and they are the least developed of the tropical forecasting tools - so they are often in error and NHC knows this.

Generally speaking, Alex is doing what NHC said it would do.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Headed Toward Mexico MikeCAdministrator Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? allan   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? allan   Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? stormtiger   Tue Jun 29 2010 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? doug   Tue Jun 29 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? mwillis   Tue Jun 29 2010 04:58 PM
. * * Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex JoshuaK   Tue Jun 29 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex doug   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Trekman   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mcgowanmc   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 07:10 AM
. * * Alex will become a hurricane. Raymond   Tue Jun 29 2010 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Fairhopian   Tue Jun 29 2010 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex k___g   Tue Jun 29 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mwillis   Tue Jun 29 2010 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex kpthras7   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:16 PM
. * * Re: this is a huge storm Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: this is a huge storm Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 06:21 PM
. * * Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z scottsvb   Mon Jun 28 2010 04:05 PM
. * * 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z berrywr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche scottsvb   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche berrywr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Ed in Va   Mon Jun 28 2010 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche CLWeather   Mon Jun 28 2010 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche 5m0k3   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche mcgowanmc   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche jasonch   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche jasonch   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche kpthras7   Mon Jun 28 2010 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:01 PM

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