Alex continues to move between NW and NNW early this afternoon. It was something that was mentioned in the 11 am ET discussion. Until this morning for the past few days there has been a piece of the long wave trough that had become cutoff from the parent upper low over the Hudson Bay of Canada. The pattern over the USA this week is a bit unusual given how far south the trough has made its presence known. A cold front extends well into the deep South today which is stationary over the Mid-South. Upper support in the way of that trough extends currently in two pieces, one into Arkansas and the other piece along the MS, AL, GA, TN, NC state lines and then extending northeastward into the upper low over the Hudson Bay.
It is the tail end currently over AR, TN, MS which there is a break between the Mid-Continental Ridge centered over NB, IA, KS, MO and the Bermuda Ridge with its axis extending through southern GA, AL, MS.
What NHS is referring to is this area of troughing to liftout or fill resulting in high pressure aloft extending from the Central US to the Atlantic Ocean effectively cutting off Alex from extending any farther north.
At this time and juncture Alex is running out of time and water. The concern is a couple of days from now and what will come of the remains of Alex and I see no evidence Alex will enter the USA and "drown" LA. Personally, I think Alex will dissipate over North Central MX.
I do believe flooding cocerns are a real possibility for Monterrey, MX which is a major city near TX in two days.
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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