cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Watching Two Areas
Sun Jul 04 2010 03:07 PM
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The low center associated with a stalled frontal boundary across the NE GOM tagged Invest 95L appears to have broken free of its frontal attachments this morning, and has been rapidly consolidating and becoming much more defined at the surface, and a small tropical cyclone could be forming this afternoon.
Currently, a well-defined surface circulation appears to be taking hold in the neighborhood of 27N 89W. Regional surface obs confirm that a small, well-defined LLC probably now exists, or very nearly so, and is underneath a pocket of persistent moderate convection, lower shear values and in less dry air, compared to the past several days.
Close-up visible floater loop also confirms the likely existence of a closed LLC in this general location.
What is not yet evident are significant pressure falls and/or increases in wind speed, but it is also possible that the obs are also not yet sampling the regions within the very center of the cyclone, where a small core of strong winds and pressure falls may be underway.
Intensity: Invest 95L remains in a less-than-ideal environment for intensification, and yet, it appears to have consolidated at the surface, broken free of its front, and for the moment, be nestled in a relative sweet spot. It remains possible that just a small shift out of this "sweet spot" would subject the fledgling cyclone to intense northerly shear and a lot more dry air.
Weakening is probably just as likely as further organization over the next 48 hours, or until the system moves inland, but it is indeed possible that a short-lived named storm comes out of this.
Impacts: Likely to be brief and very localized for a tropical cyclone, if it does indeed make the grade prior to coming inland. 95L is a small system, and tropical storm force winds, if any, would probably be restricted to a fairly small area. Convection is not particularly deep, either, given all of the dry air still in the region. As such, rainfall would mostly be light, save for the core of the system, where it could be heavy.
Movement into Texas could have locally greater impacts, as this state is already inundated from rains related to Alex all this week. At this time, most forecast tracks take 95L through far eastern Texas and/or western half of Louisiana. Might temporarily upset some vacation plans, especially along the beach. Oil/tar balls could further be thrown into sensitive marshes, and over some more beach
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