What I see occurring here is the ULL has moved west south west at a much more rapid rate than the wave, now TD, has moved WNW. It seems it is still in relatively the same location it was on Tuesday. Consequently the TD is now on the east side, as opposed to the south, of the circulation around the ULL and is beneath an envelope of anticyclonic flow. The direct westerly shear is not as much of an influence and the midlevel circulation around the ULL is now more SW'ly on the TD's west side. While this is impacting the extent of development of convection there, it is also enhancing evacuation of the convection that is developing on the TD's west side. I also see ample evacuation on the northern and eastern sides due to the anticyclone aloft, in the wake of the ULL. Obviously, I think there is potential for this to develop. I also wonder if the movement of the ULL more WSW'ly will impacrt the tract of the TD by forcing it to jog more northerly (up and around) the ULL? I really don't have a handle on those dynamics, however.
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