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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Too soon?
Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM

Ok - I've done a little research and here is a partial answer. Of the 16 most active seasons since 1885 (see the Met Blog for years) with 14 or more named storms, the average date for the fourth storm of the season was August 2nd. The five seasons that had the latest start date for the 4th storm were:

1969 (18 storms) 8/14
2000 (15 storms) 8/19
2001 (15 storms) 8/22
1998 (14 storms) 8/24
1953 (14 storms) 8/28

With no storms on the horizon for the next few days, the statistical (and climatological) likelihood of 16 or more named storms for this season is just about zero, however, a total of 14 or 15 named storms this year is still statistically possible.
ED

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Too soon?	Doombot!	Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM
Re: Too soon?	cieldumort	Sun Sep 12 2010 02:58 PM
Unofficially TD5 became a Tropical Depression Thursday	berrywr	Fri Aug 13 2010 12:12 AM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 11 2010 11:31 PM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM
Re: Too soon?	berrywr	Fri Aug 13 2010 12:22 AM
Re: Too soon?	Tazmanian93	Thu Aug 12 2010 12:37 PM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 12 2010 06:45 PM
Re: Too soon?	Doombot!	Thu Aug 12 2010 10:08 PM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 13 2010 01:31 AM
Re: Too soon?	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Aug 13 2010 10:54 AM
Re: Too soon?	MichaelA	Fri Aug 13 2010 11:45 AM
Re: Too soon?	ChrisS	Thu Sep 09 2010 07:35 AM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 12 2010 12:18 PM
Admin Note	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 12 2010 01:02 PM
Re: Too soon?	MichaelA	Thu Sep 09 2010 02:28 PM
Re: Too soon?	ChrisS	Sat Sep 11 2010 09:04 PM
Re: Too soon?	cieldumort	Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM
Re: Too soon?	ChrisS	Sun Sep 12 2010 11:05 AM
Igor's path	ftlaudbob	Fri Sep 10 2010 05:01 PM
Re: Too soon?	MichaelA	Thu Aug 12 2010 09:41 AM
Re: Too soon?	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM

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