RECON center fix at B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°07'N 87°02'W (29.1167N 87.0333W) D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:05:50Z
Might make a Tropical Depression due to the closed Low. But it's kind of 50/ 50.
The Answer:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
At the time of this post, 4:51pm EDT the first outer rain bands possibly associated with XTD5 are beginning to move into SE MS. 90 miles NW of Mobile,AL
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Re: Remnants of TD5 - 16/2030Z
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