There is a strong cutoff upper level low near 10N 53W that will prohibit any Cape Verde systems from moving west towards the United States. The Azores upper ridge is located near 22N and 33W. Between these two features thee is considerable shear...30 to 40 knots. The upper level low is part of the TUTT that divides the AO in half and anything east of it for the time being will be redirected around the Azores ridge. The Mid Continental Ridge over the South Central US and the Bermuda Ridge is only at the surface and low levels near 35N 65W and 27N 65W and non existent any highter than 700 millibars.
Closer to home...There is an upper low near 20N 78W and it is between this ULL and the ULL at 10N 53W we find a small ridge axis and our tropical wave at the surface.
There is no chance given the upper pattern as it is currently will lend itself to the number of named storms anticipated; however, despite the pattern that is out there now it's the best its been in quite some time and areas of shear in excess of 30 knots are small.
On the synoptic scale there is a cold front that is expected to penetrate the Deep South and move offshore as a long wave trough along the East Coast or a cutloff upper low off the VA coast in 168 hours (1 week). A strong Pacific low and associated trough is expected to slam into the west coast of the US amplifying the Mid-Continental ridge initially and it retrograding west to the Rocky Mtns.
As many have observed the GFS paints what appears to be a hurricane towards the latter end of the period south of Bermuda and again away from the eastern coast of the USA with the longwave trough in the position its in near the coast.
The GFS and ECMWF are very, very good at painting large "dynamic" synoptic features between 72 and 120 hours and generally 50/50 out to 168 hours.
We cannot ask the models to be that specific and that good out to the ranges they are painting what appears to be hurricanes and until these features are within 168 hours, please don't put a lot of faith in these models verifying late range systems.
As for our departing Ex-TD5 it looks better over land than it did over water. I look forward to reading the post-analysis on this system when the season closes out later this year.
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