Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


#Hanna Attempting to Reorganzie Along the coast of Honduras. Watching Invest 95L East of the Northern Antilles. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 118 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3293 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Weather Bloggers >> Resident Meteorologist Discussions

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
A Quiet Peak?
      Sun Sep 05 2010 12:06 AM

This coming Friday, September 10th, is the climatological peak of the hurricane season – and its possible that it could be a quiet event this year. Earl is now an extra-tropical storm heading for Newfoundland. The former Gaston, which seemed to be on its way toward recovery now looks like an open wave again. Yesterday some of the models suggested that Gaston would become a major hurricane in four or five days – and this evening some of the models drop the system completely. This provides us with an excellent example of why reliance on model output can be risky business.

Gaston still needs to be watched because what degenerated today can regenerate again tomorrow. The Basin itself has seen a return to a more widespread shear-prone environment - and that is an environment that is less favorable for development – especially long-term development.

The wave just off Africa on Saturday – the former Invest 99L – no longer has any realistic chance for development and the Invest area has been dropped. It became the victim of some shearing from a trough to its north, and from the ever present SAL this year.

There is an area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that showed a tendency toward further development on Saturday but the convection has been on the wane in the past few hours. Its still an area worth monitoring (probably the best area at the moment) for a few days as it moves slowly to the north northwest toward the Texas/Mexico border.

Another strong tropical wave will exit the west coast of Africa in two or three days and this one could have a much better chance for eventual development.
ED

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A Quiet Peak? Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Sep 05 2010 12:06 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  Ed Dunham, wxman007, danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, tpratch, typhoon_tip 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 2880

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center